Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Sturm host their Graz rivals in a derby that's all about momentum** — one's chasing form, the other's quietly grinding. 🔴⚪
Sturm have been hot-cold (two wins but also losses to Bournemouth), while Grazer AK sit surprisingly solid with **two wins and three draws** from their last five. The visitors won't roll over.
Key storylines:
- **Sturm's injury pile-up** — Rózga, Mamageishvili, Weiper, and Kiteishvili all out means the hosts are stretched thin
- **Grazer AK's defensive discipline** — only one loss in five games shows they've tightened up since that 5-1 demolition of Kalsdorf
- **Hödl and Stanković** anchoring midfield for Sturm while **Michorl orchestrates** Grazer's build-up
Expected lineups:
- **SK Sturm Graz**: Khudyakov, Soglo, Koller, Quarshie, Heil, Stanković, Weinhandl, Hödl, Seidl, Jatta, Diakité
- **Grazer AK 1902**: Stanković, Owusu, Oberleitner, Pines, Klassen, Anderson, Michorl, Lichtenberger, Italiano, Hofleitner, Große
Prediction:
**Sturm 2–1 Grazer AK**. Home advantage and quality edge out, but Grazer's compact shape keeps it tight. ⚽
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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