**Colombia host Paraguay in a friendly where the hosts' unbeaten run and dominant head-to-head edge should make them favorites.** 🇨🇴 The Caffeteros are on a tidy 2W-3D stretch; Paraguay arrive with decent form (2W-2D-1L) but look thinner in personnel.
Colombia's midfield has serious legs — **J. Lerma** and **D. Muñoz** control tempo, while **L. Díaz** adds directness up front. Paraguay lean on **M. Almirón** to thread chances for **A. Sanabria** and **J. Enciso**, but missing **A. Bareiro** (back injury) is a blow to their attacking depth.
Key storylines:
- **Colombia's creative control**: Lerma and Muñoz have the platform to dominate possession against a Paraguay side without key creative players.
- **Díaz vs. Paraguay's backline**: L. Díaz's pace and directness could exploit the gaps left by Paraguay's injury absences.
- **Almirón's creative burden**: M. Almirón carries Paraguay's attacking hopes—he'll need an inspired game to unlock a stubborn Colombian defence.
Expected lineups:
- **Colombia**: C. Vargas, J. Mojica, D. Sánchez, J. Lucumí, J. Lerma, D. Muñoz, L. Díaz, L. J. Suárez
- **Paraguay**: O. Gill, A. Sández, G. Gómez, J. Cáceres, M. Almirón, J. Enciso, A. Sanabria
Prediction:
**Colombia 2–0 Paraguay.** Home edge, injury attrition on Paraguay's side, and Colombia's h2h dominance make this a lean towards the hosts. 🔴
Everything we are at least 80% sure of for this match. We publish nothing below that — across all fixtures, 86.7% of these turn out right.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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