Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Match events
29'
⚽
R. Morales (pen)1–0
37'
⚽
J. R. Angulo · assist P. Pérez1–1
38'
J. R. Angulo
57'
🔁
U. Antuna ◂ J. Carrillo
63'
🔁
Helinho ◂ L. Garcia
63'
⚽
Á. Angulo · assist U. Antuna2–1
73'
⚽
D. Barbosa · assist Helinho2–2
75'
🔁
G. Martínez ◂ A. Medina
77'
🔁
N. Castro ◂ J. Díaz
78'
⚽
Paulinho · assist J. Gallardo2–3
82'
🔁
A. Briseño ◂ J. R. Angulo
90'
🔁
R. Duarte ◂ A. Azuaje
90'
🔁
C. Garza ◂ P. Vite
Coaches
Efraín JuárezAntonio Mohamed 
Recent form
Pumas UNAMDClub Tijuana1-1Pumas UNAM
WPumas UNAM2-0CF Monterrey
WClub Puebla2-3Pumas UNAM
DAtlas FC2-2Pumas UNAM
WPumas UNAM4-0Santos Laguna
CD TolucaWCD Toluca2-0CD Guadalajara
WClub Necaxa0-3CD Toluca
WCD Toluca1-0Club Tijuana
DCD Toluca1-1Cruz Azul
DClub Puebla0-0CD Toluca
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Olimpico Universitario
City
Mexico City
Referee
Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava
Kickoff
04 Mar, 03:10 UTC
Competition
Liga MX Clausura
Pumas UNAM
4-4-2 · 5-3-2
CD Toluca
1
K. Navas
7.3
7
R. Lopez
6.9
6
Nathan Silva
6.8
215
A. Azuaje
6.2
77
Á. Angulo
7.2
22
A. Medina
6.9
28
A. Carrasquilla
6.5
45
P. Vite
6.5
33
J. Carrillo
6.7
23
Juninho
7.2
31
R. Morales
7.3
1
H. Gonzalez
6.7
2
D. Barbosa
7.3
4
Bruno Méndez
6.3
13
L. Garcia
5.9
6
F. Pereira
7.4
20
J. Gallardo
7.1
10
J. R. Angulo
7.4
5
F. Romero
7.1
15
P. Pérez
6.8
29
J. Díaz
6.9
26
Paulinho
6.9
Substitutes
21U. Antuna7.09G. Martínez6.714C. Garza5R. Duarte2P. Bennevendo19J. Rivas8J. Caicedo181M. Paul24A. Leone193D. Ramirez
Coach: Efraín Juárez
Substitutes
11Helinho6.78N. Castro6.53A. Briseño6.717M. A. Isais22L. García7S. Córdova187F. Pumpido27F. Rossi23O. Virgen24F. Arce Jr.
Coach: Antonio Mohamed
39%Possession61%
2.71Expected goals (xG)3.32
13Total shots25
7Shots on target8
4Big chances4
2Corners14
8Fouls4
0Yellow cards1
Model prediction BSD ML
Both Teams to ScoreBTTS Yes 16% · Pick: BTTS No
Total Goals 1.5Over 1.5 goals 65%
Total Goals 2.5Over 2.5 goals 32%
Total Goals 3.5Over 3.5 goals 10% · Pick: Under 3.5 goals