Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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**Russia rolls in on a hot streak, but Uzbekistan's home turf could make this trickier than the visitors expect.** 🌍
Russia are unbeaten in their last five and came away with a **6-0 demolition of Namibia** — that's serious form. Uzbekistan are mixed (2W-3L over the same span) but beat Iran 3-1 at home, so they know how to turn it on in Tashkent.
Key storylines:
- **Russia's attacking firepower** (three wins by 2+ goals recently) will test **Uzbekistan's backline** early
- **E. Shomurodov** and **A. Fayzullaev** must get Uzbekistan on the front foot before Russia's midfield dominates
- **A. Miranchuk** and **L. Sadulaev** spearhead a confident Russian attack with minimal defensive weaknesses
Expected lineups:
- **Uzbekistan**: A. Nematov, A. Khusanov, S. Nasrullaev, O. Shukurov, B. Karimov, J. Urozov, E. Shomurodov, D. Khamdamov
- **Russia**: M. Safonov, D. Krugovoy, V. Melekhin, M. Osipenko, A. Miranchuk, L. Sadulaev, I. Sergeev
Prediction:
**Russia 2-1 Uzbekistan**. Russia have the momentum and firepower, but Uzbekistan's home advantage keeps it competitive. Slight edge to the visitors.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
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