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Luís Castro
Grêmio
Fluminense
Grêmio
4-1-4-1 · 4-2-3-1
Fluminense
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 3 clips
Player of the match
Match events
12'
Hércules · Foul
13'
Guga · Foul
21'
🔁
Renê ◂ G. Arana
Half-time · 0–0
65'
⚽
Hulk (pen)0–1
69'
🔁
M. Braithwaite ◂ E. Noriega
69'
🔁
Diego Caito ◂ C. Pavón
69'
T. Silva · Foul
75'
🔁
Nonato ◂ L. Acosta
75'
🔁
G. Cano ◂ Hulk
77'
C. Vinícius · Argument
78'
🔁
J. Cabral ◂ F. Amuzu
78'
🔁
J. Enamorado ◂ Tetê
79'
A. Canobbio · Foul
80'
🔁
P. Gabriel ◂ Marlon
86'
🔁
Ignácio ◂ K. Serna
87'
🔁
Y. Soteldo ◂ Hércules
89'
⚽
Diego Caito · assist J. Cabral1–1
Full-time · 1–1
90'+2
J. Nardoni · Foul
-5'
L. Zubeldia · Argument
Coaches
Luís CastroLuis Zubeldia 
Recent form
GrêmioLABolívar2-3
LAMirassol1-2
WACruzeiro3-1
LHChapecoense1-2
WACascavel2-1
FluminenseDHRed Bull Bragantino1-1
WHBahia2-0
WHNova Iguaçu6-1
DACruzeiro1-1
WHDeportivo La Guaira3-1
Where to watch
GloboplayPremierePremiere 2
Sportdigital FUSSBALLSportdigital+
Premier Sports 2 HD
Premier Sports 2 HD
Premiere 2
Match facts
Stadium
Arena do Grêmio
City
Porto Alegre
Referee
Edina Alves Batista
Kickoff
26 Jul, 21:30 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão Serie A
Highlights & clips
Grêmio
4-1-4-1 · 4-2-3-1
Fluminense
12
G. Grando
6.8
27
Diego Caito
7.8
↑ 69'
6
G. Martins
6.8
4
W. Kannemann
7.0
54
P. Gabriel
6.8
↑ 80'
22
M. Braithwaite
6.5
↑ 69'
99
J. Enamorado
6.5
↑ 78'
20
M. Villasanti
6.9
5
J. Nardoni
6.2
77
J. Cabral
7.1
↑ 78'
95
C. Vinícius
6.5
1
Fábio
7.7
23
Guga
6.3
3
T. Silva
6.8
22
J. Freytes
6.9
6
Renê
6.3
↑ 21'
8
Martinelli
6.7
30
Y. Soteldo
6.4
↑ 87'
17
A. Canobbio
6.4
16
Nonato
6.5
↑ 75'
4
Ignácio
6.3
↑ 86'
14
G. Cano
6.5
↑ 75'
Substitutes
24GT. Beltrame
23DMarlon↓ 80'7.0
43DL. Guedes
3DW. Leonardo
9MF. Amuzu↓ 78'7.3
7MC. Pavón↓ 69'6.7
19ME. Noriega↓ 69'6.6
37MG. Mec
65MRiquelme
17MDodi
21FTetê↓ 78'6.7
30FM. Nascimento
Coach: Luís Castro
Substitutes
27GM. Pitaluga
13DG. Arana↓ 21'6.6
2DS. Xavier
21DI. Rabello
46DJ. Fidelis
32ML. Acosta↓ 75'6.7
35MHércules↓ 87'6.7
90MK. Serna↓ 86'6.2
94MOtávio
28MR. Felipe
10MGanso
7FHulk↓ 75'7.0
Coach: Luis Zubeldia
Top stats
51%Possession49%
1.21Expected goals (xG)1.04
12Total shots7
5Shots on target3
2Big chances1
9Corners2
Shots
2Shots off target3
5Blocked shots1
7Shots inside box5
5Shots outside box2
1Hit woodwork0
0Big chances scored1
2Big chances missed0
-0.13Goals prevented0.31
Attack
18Touches in box9
64Final third entries56
1Offsides2
8Free kicks11
2Fouled in final third3
Passing
466Passes472
404Accurate passes412
24/43 (56%)Long balls17/37 (46%)
5/31 (16%)Crosses0/9 (0%)
14Throw-ins14
Duels
55Duels45
23/41 (56%)Ground duels18/41 (44%)
7/14 (50%)Aerial duels7/14 (50%)
6/11 (55%)Dribbles2/7 (29%)
2Dispossessed3
Defending
8Tackles6
50Tackles won67
14Interceptions8
12Clearances26
39Recoveries39
Discipline
12Fouls8
2Yellow cards4
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0Big saves1
6Goal kicks5
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 70 bookmakers
Who winsFluminense to win (DNB) 57% · 1.65 @ hardrock
1X2Fluminense to win 41% · 2.36 @ ggbet
1X2Draw 29% · 3.40 @ betfair
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 53% · 1.82 @ betfair
CornersOver 8.5 corners 59% · 1.62 @ Unibet
BTTSBoth teams to score 53% · 1.91 @ Bet365
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 73% · 1.32 @ betfair
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 53% · 1.82 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 64% · 1.52 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 71% · 1.40 @ betfair
1X2Grêmio to win 30% · 3.70 @ Bet365
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.37
Grêmio ▲
3.18
Draw ▼
2.14
Fluminense ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.62
Grêmio or Draw ▲
1.31
Grêmio or Fluminense ▼
1.28
Draw or Fluminense ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.78
Yes ▲
1.90
No ▼
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.06
Over 0.50 ▼
8.20
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.31
Over 1.50 ▼
3.11
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.02
Over 2.50 ▼
1.71
Under 2.50 ▼
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.56
Over 3.50 ▼
1.24
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
6.70
Over 4.50 ▲
1.11
Under 4.50 ▼
Draw No Betconsensus
2.32
Grêmio ▲
1.52
Fluminense ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 3.50consensus
15.50
Under 3.50
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
11.50
Under 4.50
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.06
Over 5.50
7.50
Under 5.50
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.15
Over 6.50
4.68
Under 6.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.32
Over 7.50 ▼
3.03
Under 7.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.57
Over 8.50 ▼
2.22
Under 8.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.95
Over 9.50 ▼
1.76
Under 9.50 ▲
1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
1-1Most likely score
~8Expected corners
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense to win (DNB)Who wins | 57% | 57% | 1.62 | Overpriced | low |
| Fluminense to win1X2 | 41% | 41% | 2.3 | Overpriced | low |
| Draw1X2 | 29% | 29% | 3.18 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 2.5 goalsGoals | 53% | 53% | 1.78 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 59% | 59% | 1.57 | Overpriced | low |
| Both teams to scoreBTTS | 53% | 53% | 1.75 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 73% | 73% | 1.28 | Overpriced | high |
| Under 9.5 cornersCorners | 53% | 53% | 1.74 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 64% | 64% | 1.45 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 71% | 71% | 1.31 | Overpriced | high |
| Grêmio to win1X2 | 30% | 30% | 3.13 | Overpriced | low |
Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Grêmio to win (DNB) — we say 58%, they say 43%.
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 69% | +2% | Yes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 43% | +4% | Yes |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 20% | +7% | Yes |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 48% | +5% | Yes |
| Home win | 30% | 48% | -18% | No |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | +2% | Yes |
| Away win | 41% | 25% | +16% | Yes |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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