Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Santos hosting Bahia with home-field vibes and a serious injury crisis lurking in the background.** The Fish are running hot (3W-1D-1L), but they're down **five players**, which could shake things up more than their recent form suggests. 🔥
Bahia's been all over the map — two wins sandwiched between three losses, including a 3-0 shellacking from Flamengo. They'll need to tighten up defensively if they want anything out of this one.
Key storylines:
- **Santos' injury list is *brutal*** — Arthur, Willian Arão, L. Veríssimo, and G. Brazão all out. Depth gets tested hard here.
- **Bahia's shaky defense** vs. Santos' attack momentum; the hosts' last two home games went 2-2 and 1-2, so finishing matters.
- **H2H heavily favors Santos** — 14 wins to 6 across 28 meetings, and you can feel that gulf in recent form.
Expected lineups:
- **Santos**: Diogenes, Á. Barreal, L. Peres, J. Alencar, Rodinei, Gustavinho, C. Oliva, Everton, B. Rollheiser, G. Bontempo, G. Barbosa
- **Bahia**: Ronaldo, L. Juba, D. Duarte, M. Victor, Kanu, Erick, R. Nestor, N. Acevedo, E. Pulga, A. Véliz, C. Olivera
Prediction:
**Santos 2-1 Bahia.** Even hobbled, the hosts have the edge and the track record. Lean Santos. ⚪
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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