Bahia 3-2 São Paulo: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 29, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Bahia 3-2 São Paulo.

90+6'

D. Duarte

Yellow card for D. Duarte (Bahia) for foul.

90+2'

L. Moura

Yellow card for L. Moura (São Paulo) for foul.

90+1'

G. Santana

Yellow card for G. Santana (São Paulo) for foul.

90'

7 minutes of added time.

90'

D. Júnior

Yellow card for D. Júnior (São Paulo) for argument.

88'

C. Olivera

Substitution, Bahia: M. Araújo comes on for C. Olivera.

86'

São Paulo

Corner, São Paulo.

86'

Danielzinho

Attempt blocked. Danielzinho (São Paulo), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

84'

Djhordney

Attempt saved. Djhordney (São Paulo), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

82'

Sabino

Substitution, São Paulo: G. Santana comes on for Sabino.

82'

P. Maia

Substitution, São Paulo: Danielzinho comes on for P. Maia.

82'

Wendell

Substitution, São Paulo: Victor Sá comes on for Wendell.

82'

D. Bobadilla

Substitution, São Paulo: Cauly comes on for D. Bobadilla.

81'

M. Victor

Goal! Bahia 3-2 São Paulo. M. Victor (Bahia) scores, assisted by Erick.

74'

R. Nestor

Substitution, Bahia: C. Alexandre comes on for R. Nestor.

71'

Luciano

Substitution, São Paulo: Djhordney comes on for Luciano.

70'

Sabino

Yellow card for Sabino (São Paulo) for time wasting.

69'

M. Victor

Yellow card for M. Victor (Bahia) for foul.

67'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

67'

Erick

Attempt blocked. Erick (Bahia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

65'

R. Nestor

Attempt saved. R. Nestor (Bahia), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.

61'

Erick

Attempt missed. Erick (Bahia), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

60'

Ademir

Attempt missed. Ademir (Bahia), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

59'

São Paulo

Offside, São Paulo.

57'

P. Lima

Attempt missed. P. Lima (São Paulo), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

56'

J. Lucas

Substitution, Bahia: E. Ribeiro comes on for J. Lucas.

56'

N. Acevedo

Substitution, Bahia: Erick comes on for N. Acevedo.

56'

E. Pulga

Substitution, Bahia: Ademir comes on for E. Pulga.

55'

D. Duarte

Attempt missed. D. Duarte (Bahia), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

55'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

53'

São Paulo

Corner, São Paulo.

52'

L. Moura

Attempt saved. L. Moura (São Paulo), header. xG 0.04.

51'

São Paulo

Corner, São Paulo.

51'

E. Pulga

Attempt blocked. E. Pulga (Bahia), header. xG 0.03.

48'

Newton

Attempt missed. Newton (São Paulo), header from a corner. xG 0.28.

48'

São Paulo

Corner, São Paulo.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Bahia 2-2 São Paulo.

45+5'

D. Bobadilla

Goal! Bahia 2-2 São Paulo. D. Bobadilla (São Paulo) scores.

45+4'

São Paulo

Corner, São Paulo.

45+4'

Newton

Attempt blocked. Newton (São Paulo), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

45+2'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

45'

4 minutes of added time.

45'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

43'

L. Moura

Goal! Bahia 2-1 São Paulo. L. Moura (São Paulo) scores, assisted by J. Calleri.

39'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

38'

Luciano

Attempt missed. Luciano (São Paulo), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

38'

P. Lima

Attempt saved. P. Lima (São Paulo), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

37'

N. Acevedo

Attempt missed. N. Acevedo (Bahia), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

35'

E. Pulga

Attempt blocked. E. Pulga (Bahia), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

33'

Luciano

Attempt blocked. Luciano (São Paulo), header from a corner. xG 0.02.

32'

Wendell

Attempt blocked. Wendell (São Paulo), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

32'

São Paulo

Corner, São Paulo.

28'

C. Olivera

Attempt missed. C. Olivera (Bahia), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.11.

27'

São Paulo

Corner, São Paulo.

25'

N. Acevedo

Attempt blocked. N. Acevedo (Bahia), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.04.

25'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

23'

São Paulo

Corner, São Paulo.

23'

São Paulo

Corner, São Paulo.

14'

Newton

Attempt missed. Newton (São Paulo), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

12'

São Paulo

Offside, São Paulo.

10'

E. Pulga

Goal! Bahia 2-0 São Paulo. E. Pulga (Bahia) scores, assisted by M. Victor.

8'

São Paulo

Corner, São Paulo.

6'

R. Nestor

Goal! Bahia 1-0 São Paulo. R. Nestor (Bahia) scores, assisted by J. Lucas.

4'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

3'

D. Bobadilla

Attempt saved. D. Bobadilla (São Paulo), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.19.

3'

São Paulo

Corner, São Paulo.

1'

Kick-off: Bahia vs São Paulo.

Where the money is

219059 EUR matched · captured 2 days, 22 hours ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 170315 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

70.7%

-28.3 vs price

Draw 110.0 · implied 0.9%

18.4%

+17.5 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

11.0%

+10.9 vs price

Half time 18 EUR

Away 4.6 · implied 21.7%

67.9%

+46.2 vs price

Draw 2.46 · implied 40.7%

16.1%

-24.5 vs price

Home 2.58 · implied 38.8%

16.0%

-22.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 19419 EUR · live

Over 1.17 · implied 85.5%

52.4%

-33.1 vs price

Under 6.4 · implied 15.6%

47.6%

+32.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 43 EUR

Over 8.0 · implied 12.5%

100.0%

+87.5 vs price

15 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 6 clips

Player of the match

Match events

6' ⚽ R. Nestor · assist J. Lucas1–0

10' ⚽ E. Pulga · assist M. Victor2–0

43' ⚽ L. Moura · assist J. Calleri2–1

Half-time · 2–2

45'⁺⁵ ⚽ D. Bobadilla2–2

56' 🔁 Ademir ◂ E. Pulga

56' 🔁 Erick ◂ N. Acevedo

56' 🔁 E. Ribeiro ◂ J. Lucas

69' M. Victor · Foul

70' Sabino · Time wasting

71' 🔁 Djhordney ◂ Luciano

74' 🔁 C. Alexandre ◂ R. Nestor

81' ⚽ M. Victor · assist Erick3–2

82' 🔁 Cauly ◂ D. Bobadilla

82' 🔁 Victor Sá ◂ Wendell

82' 🔁 Danielzinho ◂ P. Maia

82' 🔁 G. Santana ◂ Sabino

88' 🔁 M. Araújo ◂ C. Olivera

Full-time · 3–2

90' D. Júnior · Argument

90'⁺¹ G. Santana · Foul

90'⁺² L. Moura · Foul

90'⁺⁶ D. Duarte · Foul

Coaches

Rogério Ceni

Dorival Júnior

Recent form

Bahia

DASantos1-1

LHFlamengo0-3

WHMirassol1-0

LAPalmeiras0-1

LAAthletico1-2

São Paulo

DAMirassol1-1

WHVasco da Gama1-0

WHVitória2-1

LACruzeiro0-2

LHSantos1-2

About this match

**Bahia hosts a wounded São Paulo side looking to turn their home fortress into a fortress** — the visitors are dealing with a brutal injury list, while the hosts need to snap a brutal run of form. 🔥

Bahia are stuttering hard (1W in their last five), but they've got the edge at Fonte Nova. São Paulo have been steadier lately (2W in five) but arrive with half their defensive depth in the medical bay — Artur, A. Buta, D. Duarte, and E. Díaz all out.

Key storylines:

- **Bahia's attack** (J. Lucas, A. Véliz, E. Pulga, K. Furquim) faces a **São Paulo backline** missing D. Duarte and A. Buta — a golden chance to break the drought
- **Kanu's suspension** leaves Bahia thin up top, forcing heavy reliance on their midfield creativity through **R. Nestor** and **N. Acevedo**
- São Paulo's **M. Antônio** and **D. Bobadilla** need to control the tempo in midfield or risk being overrun

Expected lineups:

- **Bahia**: Ronaldo, L. Juba, D. Duarte, M. Victor, R. Gómez, R. Nestor, N. Acevedo, J. Lucas, A. Véliz, E. Pulga, K. Furquim
- **São Paulo**: Rafael, R. Arboleda, P. Lima, R. Tolói, Sabino, M. Antônio, D. Bobadilla, Danielzinho, Ferreira, Luciano, G. Santana

Prediction:

**Bahia 2–1 São Paulo**. The hosts' home advantage and São Paulo's decimated backline tilt this one Bahia's way. 🎯

Where to watch

Arena Sport Premium 3

Match facts

Stadium

Arena Fonte Nova

City

Salvador

Referee

Anderson Daronco

4.91 yellows/match · 76 matches

Kickoff

29 Oct, 00:30 UTC

Competition

Brasileirão Serie A

Highlights & clips

Bahia 5-3-2 · 3-4-2-1 São Paulo

1 Ronaldo 5.6 15 M. Araújo 6.7 ↑ 88' 44 M. Victor 9.2 33 D. Duarte 6.3 3 M. Moreno 6.4 46 L. Juba 6.9 14 Erick 7.2 ↑ 56' 10 E. Ribeiro 7.2 ↑ 56' 8 C. Alexandre 6.8 ↑ 74' 9 A. Véliz 6.7 7 Ademir 6.4 ↑ 56' 23 Rafael 6.1 28 Newton 6.4 5 R. Arboleda 6.6 27 Victor Sá 6.4 ↑ 82' 32 P. Lima 7.4 80 Cauly 6.6 ↑ 82' 94 Danielzinho 6.7 ↑ 82' 43 G. Santana 6.3 ↑ 82' 48 Djhordney 6.7 ↑ 71' 7 L. Moura 7.3 9 J. Calleri 6.9

Substitutes

17GG. Herrera 66DJ. Guilherme 43DL. Gustavo 31DR. Gómez 11MR. Nestor↓ 74'7.7 6MJ. Lucas↓ 56'6.9 5MN. Acevedo↓ 56'6.8 77MR. Pablo 16FE. Pulga↓ 56'7.3 99FC. Olivera↓ 88'6.7 23FM. Sanabria 27FEveraldo

Coach: Rogério Ceni

Substitutes

31GC. Coronel 18DWendell↓ 82'7.2 35DSabino↓ 82'7.0 54DL. Osorio 19DL. Ramon 2DR. Tolói 16MD. Bobadilla↓ 82'7.8 29MP. Maia↓ 82'6.7 46MP. Ferreira 10FLuciano↓ 71'6.9 49FR. Francisco 17FA. Silva

Coach: Dorival Júnior

Top stats

47%Possession53%

1.13Expected goals (xG)0.89

13Total shots14

4Shots on target6

3Big chances1

7Corners11

Shots

5Shots off target4

4Blocked shots4

10Shots inside box8

3Shots outside box6

1Hit woodwork0

2Big chances scored0

1Big chances missed1

-1.27Goals prevented-0.73

Attack

24Touches in box23

60Final third entries65

0Offsides3

13Free kicks12

5Fouled in final third2

Passing

430Passes497

346Accurate passes425

23/48 (48%)Long balls17/35 (49%)

8/29 (28%)Crosses3/29 (10%)

24Throw-ins22

Duels

51Duels49

36/73 (49%)Ground duels37/73 (51%)

23/42 (55%)Aerial duels19/42 (45%)

4/13 (31%)Dribbles3/12 (25%)

14Dispossessed11

Defending

20Tackles23

75Tackles won57

9Interceptions4

26Clearances41

53Recoveries43

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

1Big saves1

5Goal kicks10

3Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers

Bahia 49%

26%

São Paulo 25%

CornersOver 10.5 corners 54% · 1.76 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 9.5 corners 63% · 1.44 @ betfair

CornersOver 8.5 corners 74% · 1.22 @ 1xBet

Who winsBahia to win (DNB) 68% · 1.42 @ Betano

BTTSBoth teams to score 56% · 3.25 @ Bet365

1X2Bahia to win 49% · 2.30 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 54% · 4.10 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 76% · 2.00 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 26% · 2.53 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 70% · 1.42 @ Pinnacle

1X2São Paulo to win 25% · 3.70 @ William Hill

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.91

Bahia

3.62

Draw

3.75

São Paulo

Double Chanceconsensus

1.25

Bahia or Draw

1.25

Bahia or São Paulo

1.83

Draw or São Paulo

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.66

Yes

2.10

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.40

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

6.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

11.60

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.23

Over 1.50

4.04

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.75

Over 2.50

2.06

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.92

Over 3.50

1.39

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.60

Over 4.50

1.13

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.40

Bahia

2.79

São Paulo

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.10

Over 7.50

4.88

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.22

Over 8.50

3.41

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.43

Over 9.50

2.48

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

1.73

Over 10.50

1.95

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.18

Over 11.50

1.60

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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