Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Coritiba's in free fall, Vitória's treading water** — this is a clash of two teams desperately searching for momentum in the Brasileirão's final stretch. 🔴
Coritiba have won just once in their last five, getting hammered by Grêmio and Atlético Mineiro. Vitória aren't much better off, though they've at least picked up a couple draws recently to stay competitive. The H2H is dead even over 30 games (11 wins apiece), so expect another tight affair.
Key storylines:
- **Coritiba's attack is misfiring**: Fabinho and **P. Rocha** need to break through a Vitória backline that's missing key players but still solid with **Cacá** marshalling the middle.
- **Vitória banking on depth**: Missing **Marinho** and **L. Cândido** to suspension, plus **Edu** and **F. Souza** to injury, but **Walace** and **E. Martinez** can anchor the midfield.
- **Home court matters**: **Coritiba** have the Couto Pereira advantage, though form suggests it won't be a dominant display.
Expected lineups:
- **Coritiba**: Pedro Morisco, Bruno Melo, T. Cóser, J. Maranhão, F. Bustos, S. Gomez, T. Santos, J. Lavega, Josué, Fabinho, P. Rocha
- **Vitória**: L. Arcanjo, Jamerson, E. Brítez, Cacá, Mateusinho, E. Martinez, Walace, D. Tarzia, Matheuzinho, Erick, Renê
Prediction:
**Coritiba 1–1 Vitória**. Both teams are hungry but sloppy — a draw feels like the lean. 🤝
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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