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Match facts
Tournament
Montreal
Category
Masters1000
Round
Quarterfinals
Surface
hard
Key factors
Surface
Brandon Nakashima wins +24% more on this surface
Recent form
L. Darderi 3 of last 5
W N. Borges 2–1 W J. Shang 2–1 W G. Diallo 1–0 L D. Svrčina 0–0 L A. Blockx 1–2B. Nakashima 4 of last 5
W A. Rinderknech 2–1 W T. Droguet 2–1 W D. Altmaier 2–0 L T. Fritz 1–2 W A. de Minaur 2–0Head to head
L
Vienna · Oct 2025 · hard
0–2
W
Hamburg · May 2025 · clay
2–1
W/L from L. Darderi's perspective.
Win probability
L. DarderiB. Nakashima
62%
Model confidence
Why the model thinks so
- Dominant on this surface (54% win rate)
- Better recent form
- Better on break points
L. Darderi
3.00
consensus price, since opening
B. Nakashima
1.40
consensus price, since opening
Match winnerdecimal
Bookmaker
L. Darderi
B. Nakashima
10bet
2.90
1.38
888Sport
2.90
1.40
Bet365
3.00
1.40
Betsson
3.00 ▼
1.39 ▲
Betway
3.00
1.40
Bwin
2.95 ▲
1.40
Interwetten
3.00
1.37
Marathon
2.98 ▲
1.39 ▼
Novibet
3.00 ▲
1.40 ▼
SportingBet
2.95 ▲
1.40
Unibet
2.90 ▼
1.37
William Hill
2.90
1.40
fonbet
2.95
1.40
Consensus
2.96 ▼
1.39 ▼
B. Nakashima at 1.40
80%
win rate at similar odds (15 matches) · market implies 71% · value signal
O/U Games 22.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
10bet
1.85
1.85
888Sport
1.80 ▼
1.91 ▲
Bet365
1.91
1.80
Betsson
1.90 ▲
1.81 ▼
Betway
1.90
1.80
Bwin
1.85
1.83
Interwetten
1.90
1.80
Marathon
1.87 ▲
1.86 ▼
Novibet
1.90 ▼
1.78 ▼
SportingBet
1.85
1.83
Unibet
1.90 ▲
1.81 ▼
William Hill
1.80 ▼
1.91 ▲
Consensus
1.87
1.83
Games Handicap 3.50Full Match
Bookmaker
L. Darderi
B. Nakashima
10bet
1.75
1.95
888Sport
1.80
1.91
Bet365
1.80
1.91
Betsson
1.78
1.93 ▼
Betway
1.80
1.95
Bwin
1.72
1.98
Interwetten
1.80 ▲
1.90 ▼
Novibet
1.85 ▲
1.85 ▼
SportingBet
1.72
1.98
Unibet
1.78
1.93 ▼
William Hill
1.80
1.91
Consensus
1.78
1.93
Odd/Even GamesFull Match
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
10bet
1.73
2.00
Betsson
1.85
1.85
Betway
1.85
1.85
Marathon
1.86
1.86
Unibet
1.85
1.85
Consensus
1.83
1.88
O/U Sets 2.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
10bet
2.38 ▲
1.53 ▼
Betsson
2.36 ▼
1.52
Marathon
2.38
1.53
Novibet
2.35
1.53
Unibet
2.38 ▼
1.54 ▲
William Hill
2.25
1.60
fonbet
2.40
1.55
Consensus
2.36
1.54
Set Handicap -1.50Full Match
Bookmaker
L. Darderi
B. Nakashima
10bet
5.00
1.14
Betsson
4.70 ▼
1.15
Bwin
4.60
1.14
Interwetten
4.80
1.15
SportingBet
4.60
1.14
Unibet
4.80 ▼
1.15 ▲
William Hill
4.75 ▼
1.15 ▲
fonbet
4.90
1.14
Consensus
4.77
1.15
Player O/U Games 9.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
William Hill
1.53 ▼
2.38 ▲
Consensus
1.53
2.38
O/U Tie Breaks 0.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
2.40
1.50
Consensus
2.40
1.50
Match Winner1st Set
Bookmaker
L. Darderi
B. Nakashima
10bet
2.55
1.48
888Sport
2.50
1.50
Bet365
2.63
1.50
Betsson
2.60 ▼
1.50 ▲
Betway
2.50
1.45
Bwin
2.55
1.45
Interwetten
2.55
1.45
Marathon
2.47 ▲
1.49 ▼
Novibet
2.60 ▲
1.48 ▲
SportingBet
2.55
1.45
Unibet
2.53 ▼
1.48 ▲
William Hill
2.50
1.50
fonbet
2.60 ▼
1.50
Consensus
2.55
1.48
O/U Games 7.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Marathon
1.02
9.30 ▼
Novibet
1.09 ▲
6.00 ▼
William Hill
1.07 ▼
7.50 ▲
fonbet
1.04
8.50
Consensus
1.06
7.83
Games Handicap -2.501st Set
Bookmaker
L. Darderi
B. Nakashima
William Hill
8.00 ▼
1.06 ▲
fonbet
6.70 ▲
1.08 ▲
Consensus
7.35
1.07
Odd/Even Games1st Set
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
Marathon
1.76 ▲
1.97 ▼
Novibet
1.78 ▼
1.90 ▲
Consensus
1.77
1.94
Player O/U Games 3.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.55
2.30
William Hill
1.53 ▼
2.38 ▲
Consensus
1.54
2.34
Match Winner2nd Set
Bookmaker
L. Darderi
B. Nakashima
888Sport
2.50
1.50
Betway
2.50
1.50
Bwin
2.50
1.48
Interwetten
2.40 ▼
1.50 ▲
Marathon
2.59 ▲
1.45 ▼
Novibet
2.55 ▼
1.47 ▼
SportingBet
2.50
1.48
Unibet
2.50 ▼
1.48
William Hill
2.50
1.50
Consensus
2.50
1.48
O/U Games 7.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Marathon
1.02
9.20 ▼
Novibet
1.08 ▲
6.50 ▼
Consensus
1.05
7.85
Games Handicap -1.502nd Set
Bookmaker
L. Darderi
B. Nakashima
Marathon
3.34 ▼
1.27 ▲
Consensus
3.34
1.27
Odd/Even Games2nd Set
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
Marathon
1.83 ▲
1.89 ▼
Novibet
1.90
1.78 ▼
Consensus
1.87
1.84
Player O/U Games 4.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Marathon
1.75 ▲
1.96 ▼
Consensus
1.75
1.96