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Match facts
Tournament
US Open, Women
Category
Grandslam
Round
Round of 128
Surface
hard
Key factors
Ranking
Aryna Sabalenka is ranked 57 places higher
Surface
Aryna Sabalenka wins +40% more on this surface
Form
Aryna Sabalenka comes in with better momentum
Serve
Aryna Sabalenka has the stronger first serve
Recent form
A. Sabalenka 3 of last 5
L S. Bejlek 0–2 W X. Wang 2–0 W T. Gibson 2–0 L E. Alexandrova 1–2 W S. Zhang 2–0C. Osorio 1 of last 5
L A. Li 0–2 L T. Townsend 1–2 L E. Alexandrova 0–2 W L. Stefanini 2–0 L A. Zakharova 0–2Head to head
Win probability
A. SabalenkaC. Osorio
91%
Model confidence
Why the model thinks so
- Better ranking (+57 places)
- 3 tiers above
- Dominant on this surface (86% win rate)
- More effective serve
A. Sabalenka
1.10
1.06
▼
consensus price, since opening
C. Osorio
7.00
10.00
▲
consensus price, since opening
Match winnerdecimal
Bookmaker
A. Sabalenka
C. Osorio
Gamdom
1.05
8.60
Consensus
1.06
10.00
A. Sabalenka at 1.06
89%
win rate at similar odds (35 matches) · market implies 94%