← All tennis
Match facts
Tournament
Porto 2, Portugal
Category
Challenger
Round
Round of 32
Surface
clay
Key factors
Ranking
Toby Samuel is ranked 58 places higher
Surface
Mackenzie McDonald wins +20% more on this surface
Serve
Mackenzie McDonald has the stronger first serve
Recent form
T. Samuel 4 of last 5
W A. Andrade 2–1 L J. Lehečka 0–3 W T. Machač 3–0 W C. Garin 1–1 W B. Harris 2–1M. McDonald 2 of last 5
L D. Svrčina 1–2 W T. Wild 2–0 W S. Napolitano 2–0 L J. Fearnley 0–2 L Y. Wu 1–2Win probability
T. SamuelM. McDonald
64%
Model confidence
Why the model thinks so
- Better ranking (+58 places)
- Better recent form
T. Samuel
1.28
consensus price, since opening
M. McDonald
3.50
consensus price, since opening
Match winnerdecimal
Bookmaker
T. Samuel
M. McDonald
Gamdom
1.27
3.40
Consensus
1.28
3.50
T. Samuel at 1.28
89%
win rate at similar odds (9 matches) · market implies 78% · value signal