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Value Bets

📊 Tracked accuracy

Strategy v2 — underdog mispricings. Limited to markets where the live ledger shows positive ROI: 1X2 home/away outright wins and selected unders. Edges between +5% and +15% over the de-vigged consensus; odd band 1.30–5.00. Confidence 0-100 combines edge sanity, an odd-band fit, and the market's live-ledger tier.

193
Recommended picks
193
Strong tier
0
Neutral tier
2389
Markets scanned
🔥 Top picks by confidence
100 conf
AS Monaco vs Lille
Ligue 1 · 10 May 23:00
Away Win 2.75 +10.0% edge
99 conf
FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
K League 1 · 10 May 11:30
Away Win 2.12 +10.1% edge
99 conf
Parma vs AS Roma
Serie A · 10 May 20:00
Under 2.5 1.79 +10.0% edge
99 conf
St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock
Scottish Premiership · 09 May 18:00
Away Win 3.50 +10.3% edge
99 conf
FC Alverca vs Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal Betclic · 10 May 23:30
Under 2.5 2.09 +10.3% edge
All matches (47)
AS Monaco vs Lille
Ligue 1 · Sun 10 May 23:00
100/100
best confidence
100
conf
Away Win2.75
Strong market
Model 45% Market 35%
+10.0%
Fair odd
2.25
High conviction: model gives the pick 45%, the market only 35% (+10.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
K League 1 · Sun 10 May 11:30
99/100
best confidence
99
conf
Away Win2.12
Strong market
Model 54% Market 44%
+10.1%
Fair odd
1.86
High conviction: model gives the pick 54%, the market only 44% (+10.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Parma vs AS Roma
Serie A · Sun 10 May 20:00
99/100
best confidence
99
conf
Under 2.51.79
Strong market
Model 63% Market 53%
+10.0%
Fair odd
1.59
High conviction: model gives the pick 63%, the market only 53% (+10.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock
Scottish Premiership · Sat 09 May 18:00
99/100
best confidence
99
conf
Away Win3.50
Strong market
Model 37% Market 27%
+10.3%
Fair odd
2.70
High conviction: model gives the pick 37%, the market only 27% (+10.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
FC Alverca vs Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal Betclic · Sun 10 May 23:30
99/100
best confidence
99
conf
Under 2.52.09
Strong market
Model 55% Market 45%
+10.3%
Fair odd
1.81
High conviction: model gives the pick 55%, the market only 45% (+10.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
89
conf
Home Win2.41
Strong market
Model 47% Market 39%
+8.0%
Fair odd
2.13
High conviction: model gives the pick 47%, the market only 39% (+8.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Pohang Steelers
K League 1 · Sat 09 May 14:00
98/100
best confidence
98
conf
Home Win2.20
Strong market
Model 52% Market 42%
+9.7%
Fair odd
1.93
High conviction: model gives the pick 52%, the market only 42% (+9.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Athletic Club vs Cuiabá
Brasileirão Serie B · Sun 10 May 01:00
98/100
best confidence
98
conf
Away Win3.11
Strong market
Model 40% Market 30%
+10.5%
Fair odd
2.48
High conviction: model gives the pick 40%, the market only 30% (+10.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
SC Telstar vs Heracles Almelo
Eredivisie · Sun 10 May 18:45
97/100
best confidence
97
conf
Home Win2.10
Strong market
Model 53% Market 43%
+9.5%
Fair odd
1.89
High conviction: model gives the pick 53%, the market only 43% (+9.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Santos vs Red Bull Bragantino
Brasileirão Serie A · Mon 11 May 01:30
97/100
best confidence
97
conf
Home Win2.24
Strong market
Model 52% Market 42%
+10.6%
Fair odd
1.91
High conviction: model gives the pick 52%, the market only 42% (+10.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Angers vs RC Strasbourg
Ligue 1 · Sun 10 May 23:00
97/100
best confidence
97
conf
Away Win2.47
Strong market
Model 48% Market 38%
+9.4%
Fair odd
2.09
High conviction: model gives the pick 48%, the market only 38% (+9.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
NPS Volos vs APO Levadiakos
Stoiximan Super League · Sun 10 May 18:00
97/100
best confidence
97
conf
Under 2.52.00
Strong market
Model 57% Market 47%
+10.6%
Fair odd
1.75
High conviction: model gives the pick 57%, the market only 47% (+10.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal
Saudi Pro League · Tue 12 May 22:00
96/100
best confidence
96
conf
Under 2.52.59
Strong market
Model 47% Market 36%
+10.7%
Fair odd
2.15
High conviction: model gives the pick 47%, the market only 36% (+10.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Eyüpspor vs Çaykur Rizespor
Trendyol Super Lig · Sat 09 May 21:00
96/100
best confidence
96
conf
Away Win3.37
Strong market
Model 39% Market 28%
+10.7%
Fair odd
2.60
High conviction: model gives the pick 39%, the market only 28% (+10.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Middlesbrough vs Southampton
Championship · Sat 09 May 15:30
96/100
best confidence
96
conf
Home Win2.23
Strong market
Model 53% Market 42%
+10.7%
Fair odd
1.89
High conviction: model gives the pick 53%, the market only 42% (+10.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale
J1 League · Sun 10 May 11:00
96/100
best confidence
96
conf
Under 2.52.05
Strong market
Model 57% Market 46%
+10.8%
Fair odd
1.77
High conviction: model gives the pick 57%, the market only 46% (+10.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
94
conf
Away Win3.45
Strong market
Model 38% Market 27%
+11.2%
Fair odd
2.62
High conviction: model gives the pick 38%, the market only 27% (+11.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Shenzhen Peng City vs Shandong Taishan
Chinese Super League · Sun 10 May 14:00
96/100
best confidence
96
conf
Home Win3.48
Strong market
Model 36% Market 27%
+9.2%
Fair odd
2.78
High conviction: model gives the pick 36%, the market only 27% (+9.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka
J1 League · Sun 10 May 09:00
96/100
best confidence
96
conf
Away Win3.38
Strong market
Model 37% Market 28%
+9.2%
Fair odd
2.72
High conviction: model gives the pick 37%, the market only 28% (+9.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Burgos Club de Fútbol vs Almería
Segunda División · Sat 09 May 18:15
95/100
best confidence
95
conf
Home Win2.76
Strong market
Model 43% Market 34%
+9.1%
Fair odd
2.33
High conviction: model gives the pick 43%, the market only 34% (+9.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Al-Riyadh vs Al-Fateh
Saudi Pro League · Sun 10 May 20:05
95/100
best confidence
95
conf
Away Win2.96
Strong market
Model 40% Market 31%
+9.1%
Fair odd
2.49
High conviction: model gives the pick 40%, the market only 31% (+9.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Fiorentina vs Genoa
Serie A · Sun 10 May 17:00
95/100
best confidence
95
conf
Under 2.51.75
Strong market
Model 64% Market 54%
+10.2%
Fair odd
1.55
High conviction: model gives the pick 64%, the market only 54% (+10.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets
Parva Liga · Sat 09 May 19:45
95/100
best confidence
95
conf
Under 2.51.77
Strong market
Model 62% Market 53%
+9.5%
Fair odd
1.61
High conviction: model gives the pick 62%, the market only 53% (+9.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC
Eredivisie · Sat 09 May 22:00
94/100
best confidence
94
conf
Away Win2.98
Strong market
Model 40% Market 31%
+9.0%
Fair odd
2.49
High conviction: model gives the pick 40%, the market only 31% (+9.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Benfica vs Sporting Braga
Liga Portugal Betclic · Mon 11 May 23:15
94/100
best confidence
94
conf
Under 2.52.18
Strong market
Model 54% Market 43%
+11.0%
Fair odd
1.85
High conviction: model gives the pick 54%, the market only 43% (+11.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
BK Häcken vs Malmö FF
Allsvenskan · Sun 10 May 18:30
94/100
best confidence
94
conf
Under 2.52.12
Strong market
Model 53% Market 44%
+8.9%
Fair odd
1.89
High conviction: model gives the pick 53%, the market only 44% (+8.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union
MLS · Sun 10 May 03:30
93/100
best confidence
93
conf
Home Win2.64
Strong market
Model 44% Market 35%
+8.8%
Fair odd
2.26
High conviction: model gives the pick 44%, the market only 35% (+8.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad FK
Eliteserien · Sat 09 May 16:00
93/100
best confidence
93
conf
Under 2.52.21
Strong market
Model 51% Market 42%
+8.8%
Fair odd
1.95
High conviction: model gives the pick 51%, the market only 42% (+8.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük
Trendyol Super Lig · Sat 09 May 21:00
93/100
best confidence
93
conf
Away Win3.62
Strong market
Model 35% Market 26%
+9.4%
Fair odd
2.83
High conviction: model gives the pick 35%, the market only 26% (+9.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
89
conf
Under 2.51.76
Strong market
Model 65% Market 53%
+11.4%
Fair odd
1.54
High conviction: model gives the pick 65%, the market only 53% (+11.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
AD Ceuta vs CD Castellón
Segunda División · Sat 09 May 16:00
93/100
best confidence
93
conf
Under 2.52.52
Strong market
Model 46% Market 37%
+8.8%
Fair odd
2.19
High conviction: model gives the pick 46%, the market only 37% (+8.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie · Sun 10 May 18:45
93/100
best confidence
93
conf
Away Win3.16
Strong market
Model 41% Market 30%
+11.3%
Fair odd
2.44
High conviction: model gives the pick 41%, the market only 30% (+11.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
FC Botoșani vs FC Petrolul Ploiești
Superliga · Sun 10 May 17:00
91/100
best confidence
91
conf
Away Win3.34
Strong market
Model 36% Market 27%
+8.4%
Fair odd
2.78
High conviction: model gives the pick 36%, the market only 27% (+8.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Crystal Palace vs Everton
Premier League · Sun 10 May 17:00
91/100
best confidence
91
conf
Home Win2.82
Strong market
Model 45% Market 34%
+11.6%
Fair odd
2.20
High conviction: model gives the pick 45%, the market only 34% (+11.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Wisła Płock vs Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa · Sun 10 May 16:45
91/100
best confidence
91
conf
Away Win2.99
Strong market
Model 40% Market 31%
+8.4%
Fair odd
2.53
High conviction: model gives the pick 40%, the market only 31% (+8.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Liaoning Tieren FC vs Yunnan Yukun
Chinese Super League · Sun 10 May 15:00
91/100
best confidence
91
conf
Away Win2.47
Strong market
Model 46% Market 37%
+8.3%
Fair odd
2.19
High conviction: model gives the pick 46%, the market only 37% (+8.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Tromsø IL vs Molde FK
Eliteserien · Sun 10 May 19:00
91/100
best confidence
91
conf
Away Win3.61
Strong market
Model 35% Market 26%
+8.9%
Fair odd
2.87
High conviction: model gives the pick 35%, the market only 26% (+8.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Zhejiang vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Chinese Super League · Sun 10 May 15:35
90/100
best confidence
90
conf
Under 2.52.00
Strong market
Model 55% Market 47%
+8.3%
Fair odd
1.82
High conviction: model gives the pick 55%, the market only 47% (+8.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Servette FC vs FC Lausanne-Sport
Super League · Tue 12 May 22:30
90/100
best confidence
90
conf
Home Win1.87
Strong market
Model 61% Market 50%
+11.8%
Fair odd
1.63
High conviction: model gives the pick 61%, the market only 50% (+11.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Qingdao Hainiu vs Dalian Yingbo FC
Chinese Super League · Sun 10 May 16:00
90/100
best confidence
90
conf
Home Win2.34
Strong market
Model 51% Market 40%
+11.9%
Fair odd
1.94
High conviction: model gives the pick 51%, the market only 40% (+11.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie · Sun 10 May 18:45
90/100
best confidence
90
conf
Under 2.52.81
Strong market
Model 41% Market 33%
+8.1%
Fair odd
2.42
High conviction: model gives the pick 41%, the market only 33% (+8.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
BSC Young Boys vs Basel
Super League · Sun 10 May 18:30
89/100
best confidence
89
conf
Under 2.53.00
Strong market
Model 39% Market 31%
+8.1%
Fair odd
2.56
High conviction: model gives the pick 39%, the market only 31% (+8.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Atlético Mineiro vs Botafogo
Brasileirão Serie A · Sun 10 May 23:00
89/100
best confidence
89
conf
Away Win3.37
Strong market
Model 40% Market 28%
+12.0%
Fair odd
2.51
High conviction: model gives the pick 40%, the market only 28% (+12.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife
Brasileirão Serie B · Sun 10 May 01:30
89/100
best confidence
89
conf
Away Win2.60
Strong market
Model 44% Market 36%
+8.0%
Fair odd
2.29
High conviction: model gives the pick 44%, the market only 36% (+8.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Athletic Club vs Valencia
La Liga · Sun 10 May 18:15
88/100
best confidence
88
conf
Under 2.51.88
Strong market
Model 58% Market 50%
+7.9%
Fair odd
1.72
High conviction: model gives the pick 58%, the market only 50% (+7.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
AEK Athens vs Panathinaikos FC
Stoiximan Super League · Sun 10 May 20:30
88/100
best confidence
88
conf
Under 2.51.70
Strong market
Model 66% Market 55%
+10.5%
Fair odd
1.52
High conviction: model gives the pick 66%, the market only 55% (+10.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Celtic vs Rangers
Scottish Premiership · Sun 10 May 15:00
88/100
best confidence
88
conf
Away Win3.46
Strong market
Model 39% Market 27%
+12.1%
Fair odd
2.55
High conviction: model gives the pick 39%, the market only 27% (+12.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Real Sociedad vs Real Betis
La Liga · Sat 09 May 23:00
88/100
best confidence
88
conf
Home Win2.60
Strong market
Model 44% Market 37%
+7.8%
Fair odd
2.25
High conviction: model gives the pick 44%, the market only 37% (+7.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Botev Vratsa vs FK Septemvri Sofia
Parva Liga · Sun 10 May 17:45
88/100
best confidence
88
conf
Home Win2.10
Strong market
Model 52% Market 44%
+7.8%
Fair odd
1.94
High conviction: model gives the pick 52%, the market only 44% (+7.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
Chinese Super League · Sat 09 May 15:35
88/100
best confidence
88
conf
Under 2.52.11
Strong market
Model 52% Market 44%
+7.7%
Fair odd
1.93
High conviction: model gives the pick 52%, the market only 44% (+7.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
How is this computed?

This page is a strict subset of the high-conviction picks shown on each match page. For a pick to land here it has to satisfy all of the following:

  • Model probability ≥ 78% (same threshold as the Discord bot and the match detail page).
  • Edge between +5pp and +15pp over the de-vigged consensus probability. Edges >15pp are dropped: backtest shows they are almost always model miscalibration, not genuine signal.
  • Reasonable price (1.10–1.85) — coherent with prob ≥ 78%.
  • Market is not flagged as a "weak tier" (negative ROI in the historical backtest).

Model %: calibrated probability the result happens.

Market %: implied probability of the average price across major books, with the bookmaker margin removed.

Edge: the gap between the two.

Confidence 0-100: blends a sane edge, healthy probability and the market's historical tier.

Not financial advice. Bet responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose.