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Value Bets

📊 Tracked accuracy

Strategy v2 — underdog mispricings. Limited to markets where the live ledger shows positive ROI: 1X2 home/away outright wins and selected unders. Edges between +5% and +15% over the de-vigged consensus; odd band 1.30–5.00. Confidence 0-100 combines edge sanity, an odd-band fit, and the market's live-ledger tier.

197
Recommended picks
197
Strong tier
0
Neutral tier
2422
Markets scanned
🔥 Top picks by confidence
88 conf
Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
Chinese Super League · 09 May 15:35
Under 2.5 2.11 +7.7% edge
87 conf
Le Havre vs Olympique de Marseille
Ligue 1 · 10 May 23:00
Away Win 2.01 +7.7% edge
87 conf
SSC Napoli vs Bologna
Serie A · 11 May 22:45
Under 2.5 1.88 +12.4% edge
87 conf
Rosenborg BK vs Lillestrøm SK
Eliteserien · 10 May 16:30
Under 2.5 2.21 +12.4% edge
87 conf
Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid
La Liga · 12 May 23:30
Home Win 2.57 +12.4% edge
All matches (49)
Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
Chinese Super League · Sat 09 May 15:35
88/100
best confidence
88
conf
Under 2.52.11
Strong market
Model 52% Market 44%
+7.7%
Fair odd
1.93
High conviction: model gives the pick 52%, the market only 44% (+7.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Le Havre vs Olympique de Marseille
Ligue 1 · Sun 10 May 23:00
87/100
best confidence
87
conf
Away Win2.01
Strong market
Model 55% Market 47%
+7.7%
Fair odd
1.82
High conviction: model gives the pick 55%, the market only 47% (+7.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
SSC Napoli vs Bologna
Serie A · Mon 11 May 22:45
87/100
best confidence
87
conf
Under 2.51.88
Strong market
Model 63% Market 50%
+12.4%
Fair odd
1.59
High conviction: model gives the pick 63%, the market only 50% (+12.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Rosenborg BK vs Lillestrøm SK
Eliteserien · Sun 10 May 16:30
87/100
best confidence
87
conf
Under 2.52.21
Strong market
Model 55% Market 42%
+12.4%
Fair odd
1.82
High conviction: model gives the pick 55%, the market only 42% (+12.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid
La Liga · Tue 12 May 23:30
87/100
best confidence
87
conf
Home Win2.57
Strong market
Model 49% Market 37%
+12.4%
Fair odd
2.03
High conviction: model gives the pick 49%, the market only 37% (+12.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Fulham vs Bournemouth
Premier League · Sat 09 May 18:00
87/100
best confidence
87
conf
Home Win2.63
Strong market
Model 44% Market 36%
+7.6%
Fair odd
2.29
High conviction: model gives the pick 44%, the market only 36% (+7.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Minnesota United vs Austin FC
MLS · Mon 11 May 03:00
86/100
best confidence
86
conf
Home Win1.67
Strong market
Model 66% Market 56%
+9.7%
Fair odd
1.52
High conviction: model gives the pick 66%, the market only 56% (+9.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Mallorca vs Villarreal
La Liga · Sun 10 May 16:00
86/100
best confidence
86
conf
Away Win2.93
Strong market
Model 40% Market 33%
+7.5%
Fair odd
2.50
High conviction: model gives the pick 40%, the market only 33% (+7.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets
Parva Liga · Sat 09 May 19:45
86/100
best confidence
86
conf
Home Win2.12
Strong market
Model 56% Market 43%
+12.5%
Fair odd
1.79
High conviction: model gives the pick 56%, the market only 43% (+12.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
FC Augsburg vs Borussia M'gladbach
Bundesliga · Sat 09 May 17:30
85/100
best confidence
85
conf
Home Win1.97
Strong market
Model 55% Market 48%
+7.3%
Fair odd
1.80
High conviction: model gives the pick 55%, the market only 48% (+7.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock
Scottish Premiership · Sat 09 May 18:00
85/100
best confidence
85
conf
Under 2.51.87
Strong market
Model 63% Market 50%
+12.7%
Fair odd
1.59
High conviction: model gives the pick 63%, the market only 50% (+12.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Gençlerbirliği vs Kasımpaşa
Trendyol Super Lig · Sat 09 May 21:00
85/100
best confidence
85
conf
Home Win2.40
Strong market
Model 52% Market 39%
+12.7%
Fair odd
1.93
High conviction: model gives the pick 52%, the market only 39% (+12.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
New York City FC vs Columbus Crew
MLS · Mon 11 May 00:30
85/100
best confidence
85
conf
Away Win2.70
Strong market
Model 42% Market 35%
+7.3%
Fair odd
2.38
High conviction: model gives the pick 42%, the market only 35% (+7.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Paris Saint-Germain vs Stade Brestois
Ligue 1 · Sun 10 May 23:00
85/100
best confidence
85
conf
Under 3.51.89
Strong market
Model 57% Market 50%
+7.3%
Fair odd
1.75
High conviction: model gives the pick 57%, the market only 50% (+7.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv
Parva Liga · Sat 09 May 17:15
85/100
best confidence
85
conf
Under 2.51.73
Strong market
Model 62% Market 54%
+8.4%
Fair odd
1.60
High conviction: model gives the pick 62%, the market only 54% (+8.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
AIK vs Djurgårdens IF
Allsvenskan · Sun 10 May 16:00
85/100
best confidence
85
conf
Away Win2.57
Strong market
Model 49% Market 36%
+12.8%
Fair odd
2.04
High conviction: model gives the pick 49%, the market only 36% (+12.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
NAC Breda vs SC Heerenveen
Eredivisie · Sun 10 May 18:45
85/100
best confidence
85
conf
Under 3.51.72
Strong market
Model 63% Market 55%
+8.5%
Fair odd
1.59
High conviction: model gives the pick 63%, the market only 55% (+8.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal
Saudi Pro League · Tue 12 May 22:00
84/100
best confidence
84
conf
Under 3.51.69
Strong market
Model 66% Market 55%
+11.0%
Fair odd
1.51
High conviction: model gives the pick 66%, the market only 55% (+11.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United
Premier League · Sun 10 May 17:00
84/100
best confidence
84
conf
Home Win2.70
Strong market
Model 42% Market 35%
+7.1%
Fair odd
2.36
High conviction: model gives the pick 42%, the market only 35% (+7.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
FC Tokyo vs Tokyo Verdy
J1 League · Sun 10 May 10:00
84/100
best confidence
84
conf
Home Win1.82
Strong market
Model 64% Market 51%
+12.9%
Fair odd
1.56
High conviction: model gives the pick 64%, the market only 51% (+12.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Al-Taawoun vs Al-Ahli
Saudi Pro League · Mon 11 May 22:00
84/100
best confidence
84
conf
Home Win4.04
Strong market
Model 33% Market 23%
+10.0%
Fair odd
3.05
High conviction: model gives the pick 33%, the market only 23% (+10.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Coritiba vs Internacional
Brasileirão Serie A · Sat 09 May 23:00
84/100
best confidence
84
conf
Under 2.51.64
Strong market
Model 67% Market 57%
+9.6%
Fair odd
1.50
High conviction: model gives the pick 67%, the market only 57% (+9.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Grasshopper Club Zürich vs FC Winterthur
Super League · Tue 12 May 22:30
83/100
best confidence
83
conf
Away Win4.03
Strong market
Model 33% Market 23%
+9.9%
Fair odd
3.05
High conviction: model gives the pick 33%, the market only 23% (+9.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie · Sun 10 May 18:45
83/100
best confidence
83
conf
Under 3.51.77
Strong market
Model 65% Market 53%
+12.6%
Fair odd
1.53
High conviction: model gives the pick 65%, the market only 53% (+12.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren
Scottish Premiership · Tue 12 May 22:45
83/100
best confidence
83
conf
Away Win3.02
Strong market
Model 38% Market 31%
+6.9%
Fair odd
2.65
High conviction: model gives the pick 38%, the market only 31% (+6.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
FK Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia
Parva Liga · Sun 10 May 15:15
83/100
best confidence
83
conf
Under 2.51.90
Strong market
Model 62% Market 49%
+13.2%
Fair odd
1.61
High conviction: model gives the pick 62%, the market only 49% (+13.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
PFK Montana 1921 vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Parva Liga · Sat 09 May 14:45
83/100
best confidence
83
conf
Away Win1.95
Strong market
Model 60% Market 47%
+13.2%
Fair odd
1.66
High conviction: model gives the pick 60%, the market only 47% (+13.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
79
conf
Under 2.51.93
Strong market
Model 62% Market 48%
+13.8%
Fair odd
1.61
High conviction: model gives the pick 62%, the market only 48% (+13.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
FC Dallas vs Real Salt Lake
MLS · Sun 10 May 04:30
83/100
best confidence
83
conf
Away Win2.94
Strong market
Model 45% Market 32%
+13.2%
Fair odd
2.22
High conviction: model gives the pick 45%, the market only 32% (+13.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
BK Häcken vs Malmö FF
Allsvenskan · Sun 10 May 18:30
83/100
best confidence
83
conf
Away Win2.79
Strong market
Model 47% Market 33%
+13.2%
Fair odd
2.14
High conviction: model gives the pick 47%, the market only 33% (+13.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge
Pro League · Sat 09 May 18:00
83/100
best confidence
83
conf
Away Win2.31
Strong market
Model 47% Market 41%
+6.8%
Fair odd
2.11
High conviction: model gives the pick 47%, the market only 41% (+6.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
FC Andorra vs Las Palmas
Segunda División · Sun 10 May 16:00
82/100
best confidence
82
conf
Home Win2.58
Strong market
Model 49% Market 36%
+13.2%
Fair odd
2.03
High conviction: model gives the pick 49%, the market only 36% (+13.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor
Trendyol Super Lig · Sat 09 May 21:00
82/100
best confidence
82
conf
Away Win3.01
Strong market
Model 38% Market 31%
+6.7%
Fair odd
2.64
High conviction: model gives the pick 38%, the market only 31% (+6.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Gil Vicente vs FC Arouca
Liga Portugal Betclic · Mon 11 May 23:15
82/100
best confidence
82
conf
Under 2.51.98
Strong market
Model 54% Market 47%
+6.7%
Fair odd
1.85
High conviction: model gives the pick 54%, the market only 47% (+6.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Mirassol vs Chapecoense
Brasileirão Serie A · Mon 11 May 01:30
82/100
best confidence
82
conf
Under 2.51.96
Strong market
Model 54% Market 48%
+6.6%
Fair odd
1.84
High conviction: model gives the pick 54%, the market only 48% (+6.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Bundesliga · Sun 10 May 21:30
80/100
best confidence
80
conf
Home Win1.77
Strong market
Model 67% Market 54%
+13.1%
Fair odd
1.50
High conviction: model gives the pick 67%, the market only 54% (+13.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Al-Ittihad vs Damac FC
Saudi Pro League · Sun 10 May 22:00
80/100
best confidence
80
conf
Under 2.52.22
Strong market
Model 48% Market 42%
+6.4%
Fair odd
2.06
High conviction: model gives the pick 48%, the market only 42% (+6.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Metz vs Lorient
Ligue 1 · Sun 10 May 23:00
80/100
best confidence
80
conf
Home Win3.18
Strong market
Model 43% Market 30%
+13.6%
Fair odd
2.30
High conviction: model gives the pick 43%, the market only 30% (+13.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Västerås SK vs GAIS
Allsvenskan · Sat 09 May 17:00
80/100
best confidence
80
conf
Home Win3.23
Strong market
Model 43% Market 29%
+13.6%
Fair odd
2.35
High conviction: model gives the pick 43%, the market only 29% (+13.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
APS Atromitos Athinon vs GFS Panetolikos
Stoiximan Super League · Sat 09 May 20:30
80/100
best confidence
80
conf
Home Win2.21
Strong market
Model 49% Market 42%
+6.3%
Fair odd
2.06
High conviction: model gives the pick 49%, the market only 42% (+6.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United
K League 1 · Sat 09 May 11:30
79/100
best confidence
79
conf
Away Win3.40
Strong market
Model 41% Market 27%
+13.8%
Fair odd
2.43
High conviction: model gives the pick 41%, the market only 27% (+13.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Cracovia vs Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa · Mon 11 May 21:00
79/100
best confidence
79
conf
Away Win3.77
Strong market
Model 32% Market 25%
+7.6%
Fair odd
3.10
High conviction: model gives the pick 32%, the market only 25% (+7.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Royal Antwerp FC vs RC Sporting Charleroi
Pro League · Sun 10 May 18:00
78/100
best confidence
78
conf
Home Win2.41
Strong market
Model 45% Market 39%
+6.0%
Fair odd
2.22
High conviction: model gives the pick 45%, the market only 39% (+6.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Cremonese vs Pisa
Serie A · Sun 10 May 17:00
78/100
best confidence
78
conf
Under 2.51.71
Strong market
Model 63% Market 55%
+7.5%
Fair odd
1.59
High conviction: model gives the pick 63%, the market only 55% (+7.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Rayo Vallecano vs Girona FC
La Liga · Mon 11 May 23:00
78/100
best confidence
78
conf
Home Win2.38
Strong market
Model 46% Market 40%
+6.0%
Fair odd
2.18
High conviction: model gives the pick 46%, the market only 40% (+6.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Başakşehir FK vs Samsunspor
Trendyol Super Lig · Sat 09 May 21:00
78/100
best confidence
78
conf
Away Win4.07
Strong market
Model 32% Market 23%
+9.1%
Fair odd
3.12
High conviction: model gives the pick 32%, the market only 23% (+9.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Olympiacos FC vs PAOK
Stoiximan Super League · Sun 10 May 20:30
78/100
best confidence
78
conf
Under 2.51.70
Strong market
Model 68% Market 55%
+12.4%
Fair odd
1.48
High conviction: model gives the pick 68%, the market only 55% (+12.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Real Sociedad vs Granada Club de Fútbol
Liga F · Sat 09 May 14:00
78/100
best confidence
78
conf
Under 2.52.06
Strong market
Model 59% Market 45%
+14.1%
Fair odd
1.70
High conviction: model gives the pick 59%, the market only 45% (+14.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Vancouver Whitecaps
MLS · Sun 10 May 06:30
78/100
best confidence
78
conf
Home Win3.02
Strong market
Model 37% Market 31%
+5.9%
Fair odd
2.71
High conviction: model gives the pick 37%, the market only 31% (+5.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie · Sun 10 May 18:45
77/100
best confidence
77
conf
Under 2.53.34
Strong market
Model 34% Market 28%
+5.9%
Fair odd
2.95
High conviction: model gives the pick 34%, the market only 28% (+5.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
How is this computed?

This page is a strict subset of the high-conviction picks shown on each match page. For a pick to land here it has to satisfy all of the following:

  • Model probability ≥ 78% (same threshold as the Discord bot and the match detail page).
  • Edge between +5pp and +15pp over the de-vigged consensus probability. Edges >15pp are dropped: backtest shows they are almost always model miscalibration, not genuine signal.
  • Reasonable price (1.10–1.85) — coherent with prob ≥ 78%.
  • Market is not flagged as a "weak tier" (negative ROI in the historical backtest).

Model %: calibrated probability the result happens.

Market %: implied probability of the average price across major books, with the bookmaker margin removed.

Edge: the gap between the two.

Confidence 0-100: blends a sane edge, healthy probability and the market's historical tier.

Not financial advice. Bet responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose.