Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest: Stats & xG

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Premier League ·Sun 11 Oct

Crystal Palace

3–1

HT 2–1

Full time

Nottingham Forest

Selhurst Park, London · Ref: Peter Bankes

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest.

90+5'

Murillo

Yellow card for Murillo (Nottingham Forest) for foul.

90+5'

D. Muñoz

Attempt missed. D. Muñoz (Nottingham Forest), header from a corner. xG 0.12.

90+4'

Nottingham Forest

Corner, Nottingham Forest.

90+2'

C. Richards

Attempt missed. C. Richards (Crystal Palace), header from a corner. xG 0.06.

90+1'

Crystal Palace

Corner, Crystal Palace.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

90'

D. Kamada

Substitution, Crystal Palace: D. McNeil comes on for D. Kamada.

87'

Nottingham Forest

Corner, Nottingham Forest.

83'

Y. Pino

Substitution, Crystal Palace: I. Sarr comes on for Y. Pino.

83'

J. Larsen

Substitution, Crystal Palace: E. Nketiah comes on for J. Larsen.

83'

O. Aina

Substitution, Nottingham Forest: A. Kalimuendo comes on for O. Aina.

80'

C. Wood

Attempt saved. C. Wood (Nottingham Forest), header. xG 0.43.

76'

Nottingham Forest

Corner, Nottingham Forest.

74'

A. Khalaili

Attempt blocked. A. Khalaili (Crystal Palace), header from a set piece. xG 0.01.

74'

A. Khalaili

Attempt missed. A. Khalaili (Crystal Palace), header from a corner. xG 0.19.

74'

Crystal Palace

Corner, Crystal Palace.

73'

O. Aina

Yellow card for O. Aina (Nottingham Forest) for foul.

72'

D. Ndoye

Substitution, Nottingham Forest: C. Hudson Odoi comes on for D. Ndoye.

72'

L. Delap

Substitution, Nottingham Forest: C. Wood comes on for L. Delap.

72'

J. Lerma

Substitution, Crystal Palace: H. Ahanor comes on for J. Lerma.

70'

N. Williams

Attempt blocked. N. Williams (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

68'

N. Williams

Off the woodwork! N. Williams (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.03.

66'

X. Schlager

Substitution, Nottingham Forest: I. Sangaré comes on for X. Schlager.

65'

D. Ndoye

Attempt missed. D. Ndoye (Nottingham Forest), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.12.

62'

Crystal Palace

Offside, Crystal Palace.

60'

Y. Pino

Yellow card for Y. Pino (Crystal Palace).

59'

J. Larsen

Attempt saved. J. Larsen (Crystal Palace), left-footed shot. xG 0.49.

59'

Y. Pino

Goal! Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest. Y. Pino (Crystal Palace) scores.

57'

Nottingham Forest

Corner, Nottingham Forest.

56'

Nottingham Forest

Offside, Nottingham Forest.

56'

J. Lerma

Attempt saved. J. Lerma (Crystal Palace), header from a corner. xG 0.14.

55'

Crystal Palace

Corner, Crystal Palace.

50'

O. Aina

Attempt missed. O. Aina (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

49'

X. Schlager

Attempt blocked. X. Schlager (Nottingham Forest), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.07.

49'

Murillo

Attempt saved. Murillo (Nottingham Forest), header from a corner. xG 0.07.

48'

Nottingham Forest

Corner, Nottingham Forest.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Crystal Palace 2-1 Nottingham Forest.

45+6'

X. Schlager

Attempt missed. X. Schlager (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.03.

45+6'

N. Williams

Attempt blocked. N. Williams (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.07.

45+6'

D. Ndoye

Attempt missed. D. Ndoye (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.27.

45+4'

J. Lerma

Goal! Crystal Palace 2-1 Nottingham Forest. J. Lerma (Crystal Palace) scores, assisted by A. Wharton.

45+3'

Crystal Palace

Corner, Crystal Palace.

45+3'

T. Mitchell

Attempt saved. T. Mitchell (Crystal Palace), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.01.

45'

4 minutes of added time.

41'

D. Kamada

Goal! Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest. D. Kamada (Crystal Palace) scores, assisted by Q. Timber.

40'

L. Delap

Attempt missed. L. Delap (Nottingham Forest), header. xG 0.33.

35'

M. Gibbs-White

Attempt blocked. M. Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

35'

L. Delap

Attempt saved. L. Delap (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot. xG 0.68.

32'

M. Gibbs-White

Attempt missed. M. Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.04.

27'

D. Muñoz

Attempt missed. D. Muñoz (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot. xG 0.29.

22'

Nottingham Forest

Corner, Nottingham Forest.

21'

D. Ndoye

Attempt saved. D. Ndoye (Nottingham Forest), header. xG 0.23.

21'

O. Diomande

Attempt blocked. O. Diomande (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.07.

21'

Nottingham Forest

Corner, Nottingham Forest.

20'

Murillo

Attempt missed. Murillo (Nottingham Forest), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.03.

19'

X. Schlager

Attempt blocked. X. Schlager (Nottingham Forest), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.

18'

Nottingham Forest

Corner, Nottingham Forest.

18'

J. McAtee

Attempt blocked. J. McAtee (Nottingham Forest), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.

18'

Murillo

Attempt blocked. Murillo (Nottingham Forest), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.05.

16'

J. Lerma

Yellow card for J. Lerma (Crystal Palace) for foul.

11'

Q. Timber

Attempt missed. Q. Timber (Crystal Palace), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.14.

J. Lerma

Attempt missed. J. Lerma (Crystal Palace), header from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

J. Larsen

Attempt saved. J. Larsen (Crystal Palace), left-footed shot. xG 0.47.

J. Larsen

Attempt blocked. J. Larsen (Crystal Palace), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

Crystal Palace

Corner, Crystal Palace.

Murillo

Cleared off the line! Murillo (Nottingham Forest), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.14.

D. Ndoye

Goal! Crystal Palace 0-1 Nottingham Forest. D. Ndoye (Nottingham Forest) scores.

Crystal Palace

Offside, Crystal Palace.

Kick-off: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest.

Where the money is

1521630 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 5 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 945631 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

52.4%

-46.6 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

36.9%

+36.8 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

10.7%

+10.6 vs price

Half time 4889 EUR · live

Away 1.29 · implied 77.5%

69.8%

-7.7 vs price

Draw 5.3 · implied 18.9%

27.4%

+8.5 vs price

Home 32.0 · implied 3.1%

2.7%

-0.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 115425 EUR · live

Over 1.25 · implied 80.0%

65.2%

-14.8 vs price

Under 4.8 · implied 20.8%

34.8%

+14.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 3921 EUR · live

Under 1.12 · implied 89.3%

78.0%

-11.3 vs price

Over 8.2 · implied 12.2%

22.0%

+9.8 vs price

20 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

3' ⚽ D. Ndoye0–1

16' J. Lerma · Foul

41' ⚽ D. Kamada · assist Q. Timber1–1

Half-time · 2–1

45'⁺⁴ ⚽ J. Lerma · assist A. Wharton2–1

59' ⚽ Y. Pino3–1

60' Y. Pino

66' 🔁 I. Sangaré ◂ X. Schlager

72' 🔁 H. Ahanor ◂ J. Lerma

72' 🔁 C. Wood ◂ L. Delap

72' 🔁 C. Hudson Odoi ◂ D. Ndoye

73' O. Aina · Foul

83' 🔁 A. Kalimuendo ◂ O. Aina

83' 🔁 E. Nketiah ◂ J. Larsen

83' 🔁 I. Sarr ◂ Y. Pino

Full-time · 3–1

90' 🔁 D. McNeil ◂ D. Kamada

90'⁺⁵ Murillo · Foul

Coaches

Pierre Sage

Oliver Glasner

Recent form

Crystal Palace

LHBristol City0-2

DALeeds United0-0

WHLech Poznań4-0

LHIpswich Town2-3

WHMiddlesbrough3-0

Nottingham Forest

LHCoventry City0-1

WAAston Villa2-1

DHTottenham Hotspur0-0

DALiverpool FC2-2

LHLeeds United0-2

About this match

**Palace are creaky at the back, and Forest just beat Villa — this could get spicy.** 🔥 Both sides are grinding through inconsistent runs, but Selhurst Park tends to favor the home side's chaotic energy.

Palace have won 2 of their last 5 but are without **A. Disasi** through suspension and **J. Mateta** injured — that's bite missing from attack. Forest have picked up form with a surprise **2-1 win at Aston Villa** but stumbled at home to Coventry, so away grit is their flex right now.

Key storylines:

- **E. Nketiah** will need to carry Palace's attacking load with Mateta sidelined; clinical finishing wins tight matches
- **M. Gibbs-White** and **I. Jesus** form a nimble Forest duo that can exploit Palace's defensive absences
- Palace's 3-man backline of **B. Chilwell, C. Richards, J. Canvot** is patched; Forest's pace on the wing could expose seams 🎯

Expected lineups:

- **Crystal Palace**: W. Benítez, B. Chilwell, C. Richards, J. Canvot, T. Tomiyasu, T. Mitchell, D. Kamada, A. Wharton, Y. Pino, J. Larsen, E. Nketiah
- **Nottingham Forest**: M. Sels, N. Williams, Murillo, Jair, O. Aina, J. McAtee, X. Schlager, I. Sangaré, D. Ndoye, I. Jesus, M. Gibbs-White

Prediction:

**1-1 draw** leans into the head-to-head chaos — Palace scramble at home, Forest nick a road point with clever transitions.

Where to watch

TODbeIN SPORTS 1

Match facts

Stadium

Selhurst Park

City

London

Referee

Peter Bankes

4.00 yellows/match · 37 matches

Kickoff

11 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Competition

Premier League

Top stats

43%Possession57%

2.41Expected goals (xG)3.34

13Total shots24

7Shots on target6

5Big chances8

5Corners8

Shots

4Shots off target10

2Blocked shots8

11Shots inside box16

2Shots outside box8

0Hit woodwork3

3Big chances scored1

2Big chances missed7

1.06Goals prevented0.31

Attack

24Touches in box43

47Final third entries50

2Offsides1

10Free kicks11

1Fouled in final third2

Passing

386Passes498

290Accurate passes407

24/55 (44%)Long balls30/52 (58%)

6/15 (40%)Crosses10/29 (34%)

12Throw-ins15

Duels

51Duels49

32/66 (48%)Ground duels34/66 (52%)

18/32 (56%)Aerial duels14/32 (44%)

2/7 (29%)Dribbles10/18 (56%)

8Dispossessed13

Defending

21Tackles13

48Tackles won54

6Interceptions11

34Clearances19

53Recoveries62

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

17Goal kicks6

1Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Crystal Palace 35%

28%

Forest 37%

1X2Forest to win 37% · 2.90 @ William Hill

Who winsCrystal Palace to win (DNB) 64% · 1.95 @ Betsson

BTTSBoth teams to score 56% · 3.25 @ Bet365

1X2Draw 28% · 2.51 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 68% · 1.50 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 57% · 1.82 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 75% · 2.09 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 51% · 4.50 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 71% · 1.37 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 55% · 1.59 @ Pinnacle

1X2Crystal Palace to win 35% · 3.06 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.75

Crystal Palace

3.35

Draw

2.55

Nottingham Forest

Double Chanceconsensus

1.49

Crystal Palace or Draw

1.31

Crystal Palace or Nottingham Forest

1.42

Draw or Nottingham Forest

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.66

Yes

2.10

Home Win to Nilconsensus

4.60

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.60

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

11.25

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.25

Over 1.50

3.70

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.90

Over 2.50

1.94

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.30

Over 3.50

1.33

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

6.75

Over 4.50

1.08

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.92

Crystal Palace

1.80

Nottingham Forest

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.28

Over 7.50

3.05

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.57

Over 8.50

2.25

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.00

Over 9.50

1.82

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.51

Over 10.50

1.46

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.28

Over 11.50

1.25

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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