Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Nashville's in prime form and Toronto's got bodies in the medical bay** — this is a classic David vs. Goliath night at BMO Field, except the Goliath might actually show up limping. 🔥
Toronto's drawn their last two at home and are missing key defensive pieces, while Nashville rolls in on a **4W-1D tear** with their attack clicking. That said, the Reds have found ways to scrap draws even when things look rough — they'll make this a fight.
Key storylines:
- **Nashville's dominance in the head-to-head** — they've won 6 of the last 11 matchups, including their last two, and they're not slowing down
- **Toronto's injury crisis on the backline** — with Kerr, Osorio, Palacio, and Gomis out, the defensive shape will be tested early and often
- **Mukhtar and Saad vs. a stretched TFC midfield** — Nashville's creative duo have been clinical; Toronto's missing mids will need to stay compact
Expected lineups:
- **Toronto FC**: L. Gavran, R. Chukwu, R. Laryea, W. Zimmerman, J. Gilman, D. Sallói, A. Coello, J. Sargent, N. Dorsch, T. Corbeanu, J. Vilsaint
- **Nashville SC**: B. Schwake, D. Lovitz, M. Woledzi, J. Palacios, A. Najar, M. Corcoran, E. Tagseth, E. Saad, H. Mukhtar, C. Espinoza, S. Surridge
Prediction:
**Nashville 2–1 Toronto**. The Reds scrap and scrap, but Nashville's form is just too hot right now and Toronto's missing too many defenders.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
Report a data issue
Spotted something wrong on this match? Tell us what and we'll fix it.