Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Nashville rolls into this one as heavy favorites, and Chicago's defensive fragility makes it easy to see why.** The Fire are winless in their last five (four draws, one loss) and have been leaking goals all season — that 4-4 thriller vs Toronto tells you everything you need to know. 🔥
Nashville's form isn't pristine, but they've got wins mixed in and a **6-2 head-to-head edge** over Chicago that speaks volumes. The Fire will be without **A. Franco** (a big miss on the backline with that cruciate injury), while Nashville only loses **W. Madrigal** to a knock.
Key storylines:
- **H. Mukhtar** and **C. Espinoza** have space to operate if Chicago's midfield can't get organized — this could be a long day for the Fire's press.
- Chicago's **P. Zinckernagel** and **R. Lewandowski** need an outlet, but they're likely to be pinned back defending **S. Surridge** and the Nashville attack.
- **B. Schwake** should have a quieter afternoon than **C. Brady**, whose backline (especially without Franco) is vulnerable to set pieces and quick transitions.
Expected lineups:
- **Nashville SC**: B. Schwake, R. Baker-Whiting, M. Woledzi, J. Palacios, A. Najar, M. Corcoran, E. Tagseth, E. Saad, H. Mukhtar, C. Espinoza, S. Surridge
- **Chicago Fire**: C. Brady, A. Gutman, J. Elliott, S. Rogers, J. Dean, R. Lod, D. T. D'Avilla, A. Salétros, P. Zinckernagel, R. Lewandowski, J. A. Gomez
Prediction:
**Nashville 2–1 Chicago.** Nashville's edge at home and Chicago's shaky backline give the Sounders a clear lean.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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