Atlético Mineiro 4-2 Santos: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Atlético Mineiro 4-2 Santos.

90+5'

Rodinei

Substitution, Santos: I. Vinícius comes on for Rodinei.

90+2'

T. Cuello

Goal! Atlético Mineiro 4-2 Santos. T. Cuello (Atlético Mineiro) scores, assisted by K. Castaño.

90'

5 minutes of added time.

90'

G. Barbosa

Attempt blocked. G. Barbosa (Santos), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

88'

Santos

Corner, Santos.

86'

Rony

Substitution, Santos: J. P. Ananias comes on for Rony.

85'

Atlético Mineiro

Corner, Atlético Mineiro.

85'

Natanael

Attempt missed. Natanael (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

83'

Fred

Attempt missed. Fred (Atlético Mineiro), left-footed shot. xG 0.17.

82'

Santos

Offside, Santos.

81'

B. Rollheiser

Substitution, Santos: C. Oliva comes on for B. Rollheiser.

81'

A. Franco

Substitution, Atlético Mineiro: G. Scarpa comes on for A. Franco.

81'

Lyanco

Substitution, Atlético Mineiro: T. Borbas comes on for Lyanco.

77'

G. Barbosa

Attempt missed. G. Barbosa (Santos), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

74'

Arthur

Attempt missed. Arthur (Santos), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

72'

G. Barbosa

Goal! Atlético Mineiro 3-2 Santos. G. Barbosa (Santos) scores, assisted by Arthur.

71'

Bernard

Substitution, Atlético Mineiro: I. Gomes comes on for Bernard.

71'

Maycon

Substitution, Atlético Mineiro: Natanael comes on for Maycon.

65'

Atlético Mineiro

Corner, Atlético Mineiro.

64'

Rony

Attempt blocked. Rony (Santos), header from a corner. xG 0.14.

63'

Santos

Corner, Santos.

63'

Rony

Attempt missed. Rony (Santos), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

63'

G. Bontempo

Attempt saved. G. Bontempo (Santos), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

61'

L. Veríssimo

Attempt missed. L. Veríssimo (Santos), header from a corner. xG 0.22.

60'

Santos

Corner, Santos.

60'

B. Rollheiser

Attempt blocked. B. Rollheiser (Santos), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

57'

T. Cuello

Attempt saved. T. Cuello (Atlético Mineiro), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.04.

55'

Atlético Mineiro

Offside, Atlético Mineiro.

51'

Santos

Corner, Santos.

51'

G. Barbosa

Attempt saved. G. Barbosa (Santos), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

48'

Santos

Corner, Santos.

46'

Gustavinho

Substitution, Santos: Arthur comes on for Gustavinho.

46'

L. Peres

Substitution, Santos: L. Veríssimo comes on for L. Peres.

46'

Reinier

Substitution, Atlético Mineiro: M. Cassierra comes on for Reinier.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Atlético Mineiro 3-1 Santos.

45+7'

B. Rollheiser

Attempt blocked. B. Rollheiser (Santos), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

45+4'

L. Peres

Yellow card for L. Peres (Santos) for argument.

45+3'

B. Rollheiser

Attempt blocked. B. Rollheiser (Santos), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

45+3'

Rony

Attempt missed. Rony (Santos), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

45'

6 minutes of added time.

41'

Reinier

Goal! Atlético Mineiro 3-1 Santos. Reinier (Atlético Mineiro) scores, assisted by R. Lodi.

40'

R. Lodi

Attempt blocked. R. Lodi (Atlético Mineiro), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

38'

Rodinei

Yellow card for Rodinei (Santos) for foul.

36'

G. Escobar

Attempt missed. G. Escobar (Santos), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

36'

Santos

Corner, Santos.

28'

Lyanco

Goal! Atlético Mineiro 2-1 Santos. Own goal by Lyanco.

25'

G. Barbosa

Attempt saved. G. Barbosa (Santos), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

22'

Rony

Attempt missed. Rony (Santos), header. xG 0.03.

20'

Reinier

Goal! Atlético Mineiro 2-0 Santos. Reinier (Atlético Mineiro) scores, assisted by Fred.

18'

G. Barbosa

Attempt blocked. G. Barbosa (Santos), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.10.

15'

R. Lodi

Attempt missed. R. Lodi (Atlético Mineiro), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

10'

R. Lodi

Attempt blocked. R. Lodi (Atlético Mineiro), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

8'

Atlético Mineiro

Corner, Atlético Mineiro.

5'

B. Rollheiser

Attempt blocked. B. Rollheiser (Santos), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

4'

A. Franco

Attempt missed. A. Franco (Atlético Mineiro), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

4'

Lyanco

Attempt missed. Lyanco (Atlético Mineiro), header from a corner. xG 0.88.

4'

Atlético Mineiro

Corner, Atlético Mineiro.

2'

Santos

Corner, Santos.

1'

Bernard

Goal! Atlético Mineiro 1-0 Santos. Bernard (Atlético Mineiro) scores, assisted by Fred.

1'

Kick-off: Atlético Mineiro vs Santos.

Where the money is

1012732 EUR matched · captured 1 month ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 408027 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

90.9%

-8.1 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

4.7%

+4.6 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

4.4%

+4.3 vs price

Half time 4338 EUR · live

Home 1.02 · implied 98.0%

84.4%

-13.7 vs price

Away 720.0 · implied 0.1%

9.3%

+9.1 vs price

Draw 46.0 · implied 2.2%

6.3%

+4.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 47391 EUR · live

Over 1.15 · implied 87.0%

74.8%

-12.2 vs price

Under 7.4 · implied 13.5%

25.2%

+11.7 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 29787 EUR · live

Under 1.78 · implied 56.2%

88.9%

+32.8 vs price

Over 2.28 · implied 43.9%

11.1%

-32.8 vs price

15 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

1' ⚽ Bernard · assist Fred1–0

20' ⚽ Reinier · assist Fred2–0

28' ⚽ Lyanco2–1

38' Rodinei · Foul

41' ⚽ Reinier · assist R. Lodi3–1

Half-time · 3–1

45'⁺⁴ L. Peres · Argument

46' 🔁 M. Cassierra ◂ Reinier

46' 🔁 L. Veríssimo ◂ L. Peres

46' 🔁 Arthur ◂ Gustavinho

71' 🔁 Natanael ◂ Maycon

71' 🔁 I. Gomes ◂ Bernard

72' ⚽ G. Barbosa · assist Arthur3–2

81' 🔁 T. Borbas ◂ Lyanco

81' 🔁 G. Scarpa ◂ A. Franco

81' 🔁 C. Oliva ◂ B. Rollheiser

86' 🔁 J. P. Ananias ◂ Rony

Full-time · 4–2

90'⁺² ⚽ T. Cuello · assist K. Castaño4–2

90'⁺⁵ 🔁 I. Vinícius ◂ Rodinei

PEN · 3–1

Coaches

Eduardo Dominguez

Cuca

Recent form

Atlético Mineiro

WHFluminense3-1

LASantos0-2

LASão Paulo0-2

WHCruzeiro2-1

WHVitória2-1

Santos

WHCruzeiro2-1

WHAtlético Mineiro2-0

WAInternacional3-2

DHPalmeiras0-0

WACorinthians1-0

About this match

**Atlético Mineiro's looking to bounce back at home, but Santos is absolutely rolling** — the visitors just beat them twice in recent memory and show no signs of slowing down. 🔥

Atlético sit at 3W-2L over five games, while **Santos are running a scorching 4W-1D** stretch. The H2H is dead even historically, but Santos' form right now is the real story. Atlético will be desperate to flip the script on their own turf.

Key storylines:

- **Bernard and A. Minda** carry Atlético's creative load with several defensive bodies sidelined, including Everson and Lyanco
- **Rony and G. Barbosa** lead a Santos attack that's clicked consistently; Neymar's absence barely registers given their momentum
- **Arena MRV home advantage** meets a visiting team that's won both recent meetings — this is peak redemption fuel for the hosts

Expected lineups:

- **Atlético Mineiro**: G. Delfim, R. Lodi, V. Hugo, Natanael, Bernard, T. Cuello, A. Franco, Moisés, M. Cassierra, A. Minda
- **Santos**: G. Brazão, G. Escobar, L. Peres, I. Vinícius, Willian Arão, C. Oliva, Rony, G. Barbosa, Gustavinho

Prediction:

**Atlético Mineiro 1-2 Santos**. Santos' form is too hot to ignore, and they've already cracked this Atlético side twice this season. Lean Santos to continue their streak.

Where to watch

BetanoDisney+ESPN

Match facts

Stadium

Arena MRV

City

Belo Horizonte

Referee

Facundo Raul Tello Figueroa

4.59 yellows/match · 59 matches

Kickoff

16 Sep, 22:00 UTC

Competition

Copa Sudamericana

Highlights & clips

Atlético Mineiro 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1 Santos

1 G. Delfim 8.1 10 G. Scarpa 7.1 ↑ 81' 40 V. F. C. Teixeira 6.1 18 T. Borbas 6.3 ↑ 81' 6 R. Lodi 7.1 2 Natanael 6.4 ↑ 71' 15 K. Castaño 7.6 28 T. Cuello 7.9 7 Fred 7.6 17 I. Gomes 6.7 ↑ 71' 9 M. Cassierra 6.6 ↑ 46' 77 G. Brazão 5.6 18 I. Vinícius ↑ 90' 15 Willian Arão 6.3 4 L. Veríssimo 6.5 ↑ 46' 31 G. Escobar 5.7 6 Arthur 6.8 ↑ 46' 5 J. Schmidt 6.6 8 G. Bontempo 7.0 28 C. Oliva 6.6 ↑ 81' 26 J. P. Ananias 6.5 ↑ 86' 9 G. Barbosa 7.4

Substitutes

31GR. Alves 13DLyanco↓ 81'5.3 3DL. Duarte 14DV. Hugo 36DK. P. Resende 19MReinier↓ 46'8.6 11MBernard↓ 71'7.6 8MMaycon↓ 71'6.4 21MA. Franco↓ 81'6.3 5MAlexsander 39MM. Cissé 27FA. Minda

Coach: Eduardo Dominguez

Substitutes

34GJ. Paulo 23DRodinei↓ 90'6.0 14DL. Peres↓ 46'5.8 27DDavizinho 81DS. Mendes 32MB. Rollheiser↓ 81'6.8 48MGustavinho↓ 46'5.8 30MMiguelito 17MG. Caballero 45MLima 16MThaciano 11FRony↓ 86'6.6

Coach: Cuca

Top stats

49%Possession51%

2.08Expected goals (xG)1.78

12Total shots18

5Shots on target4

4Big chances2

4Corners6

Shots

5Shots off target7

2Blocked shots7

10Shots inside box9

2Shots outside box9

3Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed1

-0.17Goals prevented-1.63

Attack

18Touches in box12

71Final third entries62

2Offsides1

10Free kicks13

1Fouled in final third3

Passing

478Passes504

396Accurate passes421

13/44 (30%)Long balls23/51 (45%)

4/13 (31%)Crosses4/11 (36%)

14Throw-ins27

Duels

36Duels64

26/66 (39%)Ground duels40/66 (61%)

4/17 (24%)Aerial duels13/17 (76%)

4/14 (29%)Dribbles12/16 (75%)

7Dispossessed8

Defending

12Tackles17

75Tackles won65

7Interceptions7

15Clearances26

44Recoveries41

Discipline

13Fouls10

0Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

1Big saves0

7Goal kicks4

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Atlético-MG 51%

27%

Santos 22%

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 56% · 1.14 @ William Hill

1X2Atlético-MG to win 51% · 2.38 @ 888Sport

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 77% · 1.27 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBTTS: No 52% · 1.25 @ Bet365

Who winsAtlético-MG to win (DNB) 63% · 1.30 @ Unibet

1X2Draw 27% · 2.44 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 67% · 1.68 @ Unibet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 55% · 2.07 @ Unibet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 56% · 1.44 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 69% · 2.45 @ 888Sport

1X2Santos to win 22% · 4.75 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.73

Atlético Mineiro

3.50

Draw

4.50

Santos

Double Chanceconsensus

1.21

Atlético Mineiro or Draw

1.29

Atlético Mineiro or Santos

2.05

Draw or Santos

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.95

Yes

1.76

No

Home Clean Sheetconsensus

2.25

YES

1.57

NO

Away Clean Sheetconsensus

3.75

YES

1.22

NO

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.88

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

6.62

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.06

Over 0.50

8.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.36

Over 1.50

3.00

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.13

Over 2.50

1.71

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

4.05

Over 3.50

1.22

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

8.50

Over 4.50

1.06

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.29

Atlético Mineiro

3.40

Santos

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.22

Over 7.50

3.41

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.43

Over 8.50

2.70

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.80

Over 9.50

1.99

Under 9.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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