Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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Jair Ventura
Vitória
Grêmio**Grêmio roll into Bahia as the visitor's edge**, and honestly, their recent form is starting to click at exactly the right moment. Vitória's struggling hard at home — one win in five is the kind of form that gets you sweating through September. 🔥
Both teams are dealing with injury headaches, but Grêmio's stack of recent wins (3-1, 3-1) suggests they've got momentum on their side. Vitória can't afford another home loss, but the pressure's all on them.
Key storylines:
- **Grêmio's attacking rhythm** has been sharper than Vitória's defensive output — two straight 3-1 victories don't lie
- **Vitória's home record is alarming** with just one win in five; they need to find answers fast against a confident visitor
- **Head-to-head leans Grêmio's way** with 14 wins to Vitória's 6 across their last 28 meetings
Expected lineups:
- **Vitória**: L. Arcanjo, Ramon, L. Cândido, E. Brítez, Mateusinho, Caique, Walace, Erick
- **Grêmio**: Weverton, P. Gabriel, Wallace, G. Martins, J. Pedro, F. Krovinović, C. Pavón
Prediction:
**1-2 to Grêmio**. They're the sharper side right now and have the historical edge — Vitória's injuries and poor home form stack the deck against them.
Vitória
4-2-3-1 · 4-1-4-1
Grêmio
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
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