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Set by set
| Player | Set 1 | Set 2 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| J. Pegula | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Match facts
Tournament
US Open, Women
Category
Grandslam
Round
Semifinals
Surface
hard
Court
Arthur Ashe Stadium
City
New York
First serve
A. Sabalenka
Total games
13–7
Recent form
A. Sabalenka · match stats · J. Pegula
7Aces4
3Double faults0
66%First serve in72%
74%First-serve points won77%
85%Second serve in100%
65%Second-serve points won24%
100%Break points saved63%
38%Break points converted0%
38%Return points won29%
42Service points won37
23Receiver points won17
65Total points won54
13Games won7
10Service games won7
0Tiebreaks won0
7Longest point streak4
3Longest game streak1
Per set · aces & double faults
| Set | Aces | Double faults |
|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | 4–2 | 2–0 |
| Set 2 | 3–2 | 1–0 |
Figures read A. Sabalenka first.
Set 236 min · 8 games · newest first
5-2
game 8
J. Pegula serving
0-15
15-15
30-15
30-30
5-2
game 7
A. Sabalenka serving
0-15
15-15
30-15
40-15
4-2
game 6
J. Pegula serving
15-0
15-15
15-30
15-40
30-40
40-40
40-A
4-1
game 5
A. Sabalenka serving
15-0
15-15
30-15
30-30
40-30
3-1
game 4
J. Pegula serving
BREAK
0-15
15-15
30-15
40-15
40-30
40-40
A-40
40-40
A-40
2-1
game 3
A. Sabalenka serving
15-0
30-0
30-15
40-15
40-30
1-1
game 2
J. Pegula serving
0-15
0-30
0-40
15-40
1-0
game 1
A. Sabalenka serving
15-0
30-0
30-15
40-15
Set 143 min · 12 games · newest first
7-5
game 12
J. Pegula serving
BREAK
15-0
30-0
40-0
40-15
6-5
game 11
A. Sabalenka serving
0-15
15-15
30-15
40-15
5-5
game 10
J. Pegula serving
0-15
0-30
15-30
15-40
5-4
game 9
A. Sabalenka serving
15-0
30-0
30-15
30-30
40-30
40-40
40-A
40-40
A-40
4-4
game 8
J. Pegula serving
0-15
15-15
15-30
15-40
4-3
game 7
A. Sabalenka serving
15-0
15-15
30-15
40-15
40-30
3-3
game 6
J. Pegula serving
0-15
0-30
0-40
3-2
game 5
A. Sabalenka serving
15-0
30-0
30-15
30-30
40-30
2-2
game 4
J. Pegula serving
15-0
30-0
30-15
30-30
40-30
40-40
40-A
2-1
game 3
A. Sabalenka serving
15-0
30-0
40-0
40-15
1-1
game 2
J. Pegula serving
0-15
0-30
0-40
1-0
game 1
A. Sabalenka serving
15-0
30-0
40-0
40-15
Point chips read A. Sabalenka first · highlighted border marks the point winner.
Head to head
L
Berlin · Jun 2026 · grass
1–2
W
WTA Finals · Nov 2025 · hard
2–1
L
Wuhan · Oct 2025 · hard
1–2
W
US Open, Women · Sep 2025 · hard
2–1
W
Miami · Mar 2025 · hard
2–0
W/L from A. Sabalenka's perspective.
Win probability
A. SabalenkaJ. Pegula
70%
Model confidence
Why the model thinks so
- Dominant on this surface (86% win rate)
- More titles on this surface
- Better on break points
- Strong in tiebreaks (82%)
How the model did
Predicted A. Sabalenka
— correct
A. Sabalenka
1.62
consensus price, since opening
J. Pegula
2.30
consensus price, since opening
Match winnerdecimal
Bookmaker
A. Sabalenka
J. Pegula
10bet
1.48 ▼
2.55 ▲
1xBet
1.51 ▼
2.63 ▲
888Sport
1.50 ▼
2.60 ▲
Bet365
1.50 ▼
2.63 ▲
Betano
1.50 ▼
2.62 ▲
Betsson
1.48 ▼
2.56 ▲
Betway
1.50
2.60
Bwin
1.53 ▼
2.54 ▲
Interwetten
1.50 ▼
2.55 ▲
Marathon
1.50 ▼
2.61 ▲
Novibet
1.50 ▼
2.70 ▲
SportingBet
1.53
2.54
Unibet
1.50 ▼
2.60 ▲
William Hill
1.50 ▼
2.60 ▲
fonbet
1.50 ▼
2.60 ▼
Consensus
1.50 ▼
2.60 ▼
O/U Games 22.00Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
10bet
1.80 ▼
1.95 ▲
1xBet
1.89 ▲
1.89 ▼
Marathon
1.89 ▲
1.89 ▼
Consensus
1.86 ▲
1.91 ▲
Games Handicap -3.00Full Match
Bookmaker
A. Sabalenka
J. Pegula
10bet
1.83 ▼
1.90 ▲
1xBet
1.89 ▼
1.88
Consensus
1.86 ▼
1.89 ▲
Odd/Even GamesFull Match
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
10bet
1.83
1.83
1xBet
1.89
1.89
Betsson
1.85
1.85
Marathon
1.89
1.89
Unibet
1.90 ▼
1.91 ▲
William Hill
1.85
1.85
Consensus
1.87
1.87
O/U Sets 2.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
1xBet
2.40 ▲
1.56 ▼
Betsson
2.20 ▼
1.60 ▲
Betway
2.20
1.60
Marathon
2.40 ▲
1.56 ▼
Novibet
2.25 ▼
1.60 ▲
Unibet
2.45 ▲
1.52 ▲
William Hill
2.05 ▼
1.70 ▲
fonbet
2.30 ▼
1.57 ▲
Consensus
2.28 ▼
1.59 ▲
Set Handicap -1.50Full Match
Bookmaker
A. Sabalenka
J. Pegula
10bet
2.15 ▼
1.65 ▲
1xBet
2.27
1.62
Betano
2.27 ▼
1.60 ▲
Betsson
2.23 ▲
1.58 ▼
Betway
2.25
1.59
Bwin
2.30 ▲
1.53 ▼
Interwetten
2.40
1.50
Novibet
2.15 ▼
1.63 ▲
SportingBet
2.30
1.53
Unibet
2.18 ▼
1.64 ▲
William Hill
2.38
1.53
fonbet
2.30 ▲
1.60 ▲
Consensus
2.26 ▼
1.58 ▲
Player O/U Games 10.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
William Hill
1.17 ▼
4.50 ▲
Consensus
1.17 ▼
4.50 ▲
O/U Double Faults 5.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.55
2.30
Consensus
1.55
2.30
O/U Tie Breaks 0.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Betano
2.85
1.37
Novibet
2.80 ▼
1.38 ▲
Consensus
2.83 ▼
1.38
Match Winner1st Set
Bookmaker
A. Sabalenka
J. Pegula
10bet
1.55 ▼
2.35 ▲
1xBet
1.60 ▼
2.31 ▲
888Sport
1.57 ▼
2.30 ▲
Bet365
1.62
2.30
Betano
1.55 ▼
2.35 ▲
Betsson
1.56 ▼
2.36 ▲
Betway
1.59
2.25
Bwin
1.57 ▼
2.30 ▲
Interwetten
1.60
2.30
Marathon
1.60 ▼
2.31 ▲
Novibet
1.58 ▼
2.30 ▲
SportingBet
1.57
2.30
Unibet
1.56 ▼
2.38 ▲
William Hill
1.57 ▼
2.30 ▲
fonbet
1.60 ▼
2.35 ▲
Consensus
1.58 ▼
2.32 ▲
O/U Games 6.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Unibet
1.01
23.00 ▲
William Hill
1.02
15.00
Consensus
1.01
19.00 ▲
Games Handicap -3.501st Set
Bookmaker
A. Sabalenka
J. Pegula
1xBet
4.80 ▼
1.17
Marathon
4.80 ▼
1.17
William Hill
4.50 ▲
1.17 ▼
fonbet
4.50 ▼
1.17 ▲
Consensus
4.65 ▼
1.17 ▲
Odd/Even Games1st Set
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
1xBet
1.90 ▲
1.88 ▼
Marathon
1.90 ▲
1.88 ▼
Novibet
1.95
1.75
Consensus
1.92 ▲
1.84 ▼
Player O/U Games 3.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.22
3.85 ▲
William Hill
1.14 ▼
5.00 ▲
Consensus
1.18 ▼
4.43 ▲
Match Winner2nd Set
Bookmaker
A. Sabalenka
J. Pegula
1xBet
1.56 ▼
2.40 ▲
888Sport
1.57 ▼
2.30 ▲
Betano
1.55 ▼
2.35 ▲
Betway
1.53
2.38
Bwin
1.57 ▼
2.30 ▲
Interwetten
1.60
2.30
Marathon
1.56 ▼
2.40 ▲
Novibet
1.55 ▼
2.35 ▲
SportingBet
1.57
2.30
Unibet
1.56 ▼
2.40 ▲
William Hill
1.57 ▼
2.30 ▲
Consensus
1.56 ▼
2.34 ▲
O/U Games 7.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
1xBet
1.07
7.20 ▼
Marathon
1.07
7.20 ▼
Novibet
1.11
5.50 ▼
Consensus
1.08 ▲
6.63 ▼
Games Handicap -3.502nd Set
Bookmaker
A. Sabalenka
J. Pegula
1xBet
4.70 ▼
1.17
Marathon
4.70 ▼
1.17
Consensus
4.70 ▼
1.17 ▲
Odd/Even Games2nd Set
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
1xBet
1.95 ▲
1.83
Marathon
1.95 ▲
1.83
Novibet
1.98
1.72
Consensus
1.96 ▲
1.80 ▼
Player O/U Games 4.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
1xBet
1.32 ▼
3.26 ▲
Marathon
1.32 ▼
3.26 ▲
Consensus
1.32 ▼
3.26 ▲