Twelve million euros against a valuation of around two million. That is the gap Al-Ahli have closed to sign Makaya Ibrahima Diaby from Cercle Brugge, a deal that sees the Saudi club pay well above the player's market rate to get the transfer done.
BSD's valuation model had Diaby priced at roughly 2M EUR, a figure built from his output, minutes and contract situation at Cercle Brugge. Al-Ahli's 12M EUR fee is six times that number, the kind of gap that usually reflects urgency on the buying side rather than a shift in the player's underlying numbers.
Why the premium
Clubs pay above market value for all sorts of reasons: a specific tactical need, a release clause, competition from rivals, or simply a transfer market where valuations lag behind what buyers are willing to spend. The data here does not specify which of those applied to Al-Ahli, only that the fee agreed is substantially higher than the player's modelled worth.
For Cercle Brugge, the sale represents a significant return on a player valued at a fraction of the final fee. For Al-Ahli, it is a bet that Diaby's contribution on the pitch will justify the outlay, regardless of what the market says he was worth the day before the deal was struck.
Whether the numbers catch up with the fee is now a question for Diaby's performances in Saudi Arabia, not for the valuation models that priced him before the move.